Milwaukee Voucher Prediction Thread

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I never made any Oscar predictions, and, given that the only movie that won anything that I had actually seen was the penguin one, that seems smart. However, I feel much more confident in making some predictions about what will happen to the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program next year, having read the compromise bill and considered its implications. And with the legislature and Governor Doyle set to make it official any second now, I figured I'd look into the ol' crystal ball.

So, bookmark this one, and when the full scope of what happens under the cap is clear, you can look back and see whether or not I was right about all of this:

One prediction I wanted to make was that the calls would start coming for ann unlimited, state-wide system of vouchers. Sadly, Republican state rep. Robin Vos has already started the clamoring; Seth has the details about how Vos beat me to the wire. But to the rest of the predictions:

1. I will start by putting the over-under at 1750 students as the increase in the number of participating students. That's higher than recent years' increases, and much higher than the Public Policy Forum had otherwise predicted for this fall.. It's nowhere near the 15,000 seats schools said they thought they could fill.
   
2. The right will trumpet the bigger-than-expected increase as further signs of the voucher program's "success." This will be part of the long-standing tradition of defining participation as success, despite a general lack of evidence about the quality of the schools. See, for example, this guy, who glosses completely over any questions of quality in declaring that school choice is somehow good for the economy.
   
3. A significant portion of the increase--I'm going to guess at least 1000, if not a full 2/3--will be moderate-income white students. Changes in the law will allow many currently ineligible students to slip right into the program without even having to change schools. The new law is even ambiguous enough that non-Milwaukee resident students may be able to attend voucher schools.
   
4. The "samples" of test scores provided to the Legislative Audit Bureau will show that the sample students do as well or better than average MPS students. However, the law provides for no mechanism to offer any information on any individual voucher school. Parents will remain in the dark about whether any particular school is as good as the voucher program as a whole.
   
5. The "funding flaw"--the flaw that both takes tens of millions away from the Milwaukee Public Schools and sticks Milwaukee residents with the bill--will not be resolved in the budget negotiated next year. There will be no impetus, whether Doyle is re-elected or not, to address it, and the "stick-it-to-Milwaukee" attitude will continue unabated.

Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments.