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Pay no attention to the people behind the curtain

Monday, November 06, 2006

Predictions. But Don't Hold Me to Them.

I've learned my lesson, so I'm going to throw in predictions for easy races. Grade inflation, you know. I'll start national and then go state:
  • The Democrats will take the House, picking up 20-23 seats. That's lower than most estimates, but I'd rather be pessimistic and surprised by the results.

  • Democrats will not take the Senate, though they will win four or five seats. No Dem incumbents will lose, except Joe Lieberman.

  • Jim Doyle will be re-elected. Owen expects a Green victory, based on the "Incumbent Rule." I say, let's ask President Kerry what he thinks of the incumbent rule. And the margin won't be that close--something in 52-48 range. Eismann just won't be a factor.

  • The Falk-Van Hollen race is too close to call, almost. (That's my hedge.) That said, I think Falk will win a squeaker--this may well be the last state-wide race to get called.

  • Both statewide ballot measures will probably pass. I don't put it out of the realm of possibility that the amendment will fail--Fair Wisconsin has run an airtight campaign--but momentum in the "no" direction isn't enough. I wanted to see at least one poll with the thing going down before now.

  • Republicans will keep the state Assembly. I know, I know, out on a limb there. But I feel confident.

  • Democrats will take the state Senate. Reynolds and Zien definitely lose. Baby-daddy McReynolds is the most likely next loser.

  • Herb Kohl will . . . wait for it . . . win. By at least 20%.

  • The House races:
    1. Paul Ryan
    2. Tammy Baldwin
    3. Ron Kind
    4. Gwen Moore
    5. Jim Sensenbrenner (though with a much smaller margin than in 2004)
    6. Tom Petri
    7. Dave Obey
    8. Steve Kagen (by five or six points)

  • Despite my ringing endorsement for Don Holt, David Clarke will be re-elected.

  • John Chisholm will win the Milwaukee County DA's race.

  • All the various Iraq war bring-'em-home referrenda will pass.
No matter what really happens--big Dem wins or big Dem losses--I agree with Scott:
I further predict that whatever happens, the right half of the blogosphere will instantly proclaim it a victory for their side. Yes. Because someone you never heard of said on CNN three months ago that Democrats could take the senate, the fact that it didn’t happen will be touted as proof-positive that the American people have rejected the left’s flawed agenda, while giving a mandate to the Republican party to move further to the right. [Ed. See Ann Coulter, laying that groundwork.] It will also be said that we played dirty. So dirty, in fact, that the only explanation for why we didn’t win every election by a landslide is that voters utterly spurned our bankrupt ideology in favor of GOP ideals.
Add to it claims of vote fraud (crack-heads making up names for ACORN is not a winning vote-fraud strategy, by the way) and perhaps even a lawsuit by Mark Green to challenge the legality of his loss. It will get uglier before it gets better. That is a prediction you can take to the bank.

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