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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

And Then There Were Ten

by folkbum

Well, Fred Thompson exited stage right today, which leaves, if we don't count Alan Keyes--and, really, who does?--ten candidates. That takes the number of theoretical match-ups down to a mere 25, with maybe 6 really possible. However, an even five folks on each side means I can pair one D up with one R; so here are some general election match-ups I'd like to see:
  • Hillary Clinton v. Rudy 9u11iani, wherein the voters can base their decision on who looks better in a dress;
  • Mike Gravel v. Ron Paul, in what you might call the Abraham J. Simpson Memorial Coot-Off;
  • Dennis Kucinich v. Willard "Mitt" Romney, so we can learn whether people would rather vote for someone who believes the Book of Mormon or someone who believes the books of Shirley MacLaine;
  • John Edwards v. Mike Huckabee, in a contest that will remind us more of a "Hee-Haw" skit than an election, and which will propel America into a depression over the collective realization that we remember "Hee-Haw";
  • Barack Obama v. John McCain, which will take on mythic, archetypal proportions, given that Obama is McCain's illegitimate son.
On another note, I want to ask the media to make an adjustment for the next Democratic debate. We know that the candidates are too nice to each other when they're sitting down, and they're too mean when they're standing up. So please, for the next debate, bar stools.

If anyone wants to predict the Dems in South Carolina this weekend, go ahead. My prediction is simply this: South Carolina doesn't matter. John Edwards will be third, and either of the two other candidates have good "so what if I lost" narratives that they can flog until February 5--when this thing will probably be decided.

Important MPS hearing tonight

by folkbum

This came through on the email this morning; you can get some background from the newspaper here.
Hello friends of MPS,

As you might have seen in the news, the MPS board took a needed step last week, the first step in a push back against No Child Left Behind's waste of our district resources. We voted not to hire a pack of overseers for the new federally-imposed DIFI bureaucracy until the federal government sent a check with dedicated funds to pay for these positions.

Not surprisingly, the money's been found and it's already in the district's pockets. (Ha!) An emergency meeting of the board's Finance and Personnel committee has been called for tomorrow night to approve the creation of this bureaucracy.

As a taxpayer and a mom who has invested a lot into the success of MPS and the children it serves, I'm sick of seeing our money go down the drain to meet increasingly more bizarre NCLB requirements. Because MPS has entered DIFI ("District Identified for Improvement") status, the feds are forcing the state to impose a series of interventions on us. Some of these interventions include creating a new bureaucracy to oversee the new mandated curriculum we'll be teaching during a new mandated school-day schedule.

Even if the feds were actually paying for these (and the many other) mandates -- which they're not -- it would still be wrong to approve these positions. NCLB is a distraction away from what really will help our children, like smaller class sizes and meaningful home/school connections.

If you can, please come tell the Finance and Personnel committee what you think:

Special Meeting of the Finance & Personnel Committee
Tuesday, Jan. 22nd at 6 p.m.
MPS Central Services * 5225 W. Vliet St.

Sorry for the late notice; I just found out about this this afternoon.

Jennifer Morales,
Member of the Milwaukee Board of School Directors

Monday, January 21, 2008

Looking On The Bright Side

by capper

OK, OK, I know things around here have been pretty rough lately. The extremely cold temperatures followed by the white fluffy death; the economy going down the toilet; ever increasing numbers of foreclosures; gasoline prices through the roof and it's only going to go up; incessant political yammerings from every direction. And to top it off, it got so cold on Sunday, that Hell froze over and the Giants beat the Pack (thanks for nothing, Jay!).

But cheer up, buddy. There is something to be happy about today. Today is the first day of the last year of the Bush administration.

Let's hope we never get this fooled again.

Small Town News

by capper

When Grandpa capper retired in the mid-70s, he and Grandma capper moved up to their land in central Wisconsin. At that time, there was a weekly paper from the nearest town, Iola, called the Iola Herald. It was put out by the Little Wolf Publishing Corp. and was just about what you would expect from a small town paper.

I'll never forget how I thought it was really cool, yet at the same time, unbelievably dorky, that they would publish under a section of town events, something like, "Grandma and Grandpa got a visit last week from their grandson, Little capper. Grandpa capper took Little capper fishing at Lake Iola, where they caught a bucketful of bluegills and two trouts." I mean, you know you're talking small town, when visiting your grandparents makes the local paper.

As time went by, the paper was sold, and a couple, Trey and Mary Foerster, bought the Herald and the Manawa Advocate, another small town weekly. They made a lot of changes to the papers, including merging them for cost-savings purposes. They also cut out the little town news that made it so hokey and yet charming.

I still get the paper, just to keep up on local events, local ordinances, etc, that would be otherwise unavailable to me. For the most part, except for the few things that I have an interest in, the paper is useless to me. Out of the usual 24 pages or so in each issue, at least a third of it is dedicated to the local high school sports teams. The rest is advertising, a religious page, five pages of classifieds, and usually a couple of pages of "news stories" that are simply advertising for local businesses.

Sometimes they do have something interesting, like the events around that wild and wacky season, Potato Appreciation Month. I'm sorry, but I digress. My point is that even though the paper is not has quaint, it still has a small town feel about it.

Until this week.

As I sat down to peruse the paper, it was the subarctic temperatures that put a chill through me. It was the headline of the paper. It read:

Iola Herald purchased by Journal Communications Inc.

It is bad enough that the Journal owns the only daily paper here in Milwaukee, but also a TV station, and a radio station. They also own MKE, the CNI papers, and other publications and stations around the country. Now this. It keeps getting harder and harder to find accurate and unbiased news in this world.

Sheesh, with one of my last refuges from the chaos of the big city, I'll still have to put up with the likes of Patrick McIlheran.

Oh, how I sometimes really miss the good old days.

Taylor vs. Walker: The Debates

by capper

From JSOnline's political blog:

Candidate face-offs set in county exec race
By Steve Schultze
Monday,
Jan 21 2008, 03:57 PM

After a sluggish start to the campaign for Milwaukee County executive, a series of candidate debates and forums have been set.

The first formal debate between incumbent County Executive Scott Walker and challenger Lena Taylor scheduled so far will be 11:45 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. Feb. 21 at the Italian Community Center, 631 E. Chicago St.

The debate is co-sponsored by the Milwaukee Press Club and the Public Policy Forum and will be moderated by William Holahan, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Admission, which includes lunch and parking, is $40 for press club members and $50 for non-members.

The candidates also are scheduled to debate at 7 p.m. March 5 at the Jewish Community Center, 6255 N. Santa Monic Blvd., in Whitefish Bay; and at noon March 11 at the downtown Rotary Club meeting at the War Memorial Center.

Walker and Taylor also have agreed to appear at a forum at 6:30 p.m. March 6 at Faith United Church of Christ, 4240 N. 78th St., sponsored by the Capital West Neighborhood Association.

Walker said last week he wanted to debate Taylor as frequently as possible. Several additional appearances are also being planned, said Tim Russell, Walker's campaign chairman.

Walker, a 40-year-old former Republican Assembly member, was first elected county executive in 2002 and re-elected in 2004. Taylor, a 41-year-old Democratic state senator from Milwaukee, has served in the Legislature since 2003.


Good thing there's that liberal bias at MJS, otherwise one would wonder why they've ignored the Taylor campaign asking for debates for weeks.

(Now if I can only get Jay to give me some of his pimpin' money, maybe I could go.)

Mark and Charley’s Performance Review

By Keith Schmitz

Gentlemen come in, have a seat and oh by the way, please close the door.

We are going to take the rather unusual step of giving you a joint performance review. On top of that, you haven’t had one so it is about time.

To be honest with you, we have to be somewhat critical about your lack of contribution to our organization, in this case being the Milwaukee metro area. Maybe that was misstated. Make that no contribution.

As you know, or maybe you don’t, for any organization to succeed it has to work together as team. Metro Milwaukee has a lot going for it; a hard working and smart labor force, a great place to raise a family, a collection of leading universities, great cultural and entertainment attractions, and bunch of other attributes. Yeah things are not perfect. Poverty is a big problem, so is crime and we need more people to move here.

But one reason why we cannot get traction on any of these challenges is the team is not pulling together the way it should. You two guys have seemingly done all you can to create derision between our stakeholders.

A level of disagreement is essential to the dynamic of any organization and is healthy but there reaches a point where it is not. You have taken it way over the top and fanned rancor within our team. Like any business, while incompetence can get you dismissed, so can a profound inability to work well with others.

That includes an excessively high level of disrespect to our leadership team past and present including Dick Abdoo, Don Richards, Mike Cudahy, Tom Barrett, Marcus White and most recently Steve Jagler. Basically the position of management is when you have serious people doing serious things you don’t get in their way with petulant diatribes.

As well as throwing body blocks in the path of members of the organization trying to positive things, you lack an appreciation for forward-thinking ideas, from light rail to diversity programs to stem cell research. You fail to consider to consider alternatives to the health care crisis that has been detrimental to our organization. You have never offered up positive ideas for attacking our local problems.

In business, a sense of proportion is important and here you display extreme deficiency. Instances where you have wildly overstated the issues include alleging wide-spread voter fraud, the need for conceal and carry, Wisconsin as a tax hell and internationally advocating the invasion of Iraq and in so wasting valuable resources for no apparent reason. Your perception of situations is clouded by a wall of preconceived notions higher than the Hoover Dam.

In short, gentlemen you have failed to provide value to the organization.

On the positive side, you exhibit good personal grooming habits.

Though our policy precludes dismissal, a copy of this review will be in your file.

We hope this evaluation leads to some improvements in your performance.

Please close the door on the way out.

Yes, let's invest in the market

by folkbum

What could go wrong?

Sunday, January 20, 2008

I love days like this

by folkbum

No waits at restaurants, quick lines at the grocery store. Sweet.

Oh. Go Pack. Or something.

Update: Kiss of death, I tell you, even in football. Go McCain!

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Leave It To A Politician

by capper

I received this email today from a friend. At first, I thought it to be a joke, until I was able to confirm that it was for real. It is the world's longest and most verbose way of saying "Go Packers!":

WHEREAS, the Green Bay Packers thrilled a sellout crowd at Lambeau Field and a national television audience on Saturday, January 12, 2008 with their commanding and memorable 42-20 win over the Seattle Seahawks; and

WHEREAS, the win furthered the team’s playoff standing, giving fans reason to celebrate as the Green Bay Packers go on to face the New York Giants at Lambeau Field on Sunday, January 20, 2008 for the NFC Championship; and

WHEREAS, Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy added to his impressive coaching success by winning 18 of the last 21 games, and quarterback Brett Favre to his enduring legacy as the all-time greatest team leader and player during this outstanding season; and

WHEREAS, the Green Bay Packers have established themselves through superior teamwork and immeasurable heart, and demonstrated that neither rain, wind, sleet, snow or Giants will keep them from their goal; now, therefore,

I, Scott Walker, County Executive of Milwaukee County, do hereby extend my enthusiastic congratulations to Green Bay Packers General Manager Ted Thompson, Coach Mike McCarthy, the team coaching, personnel and administrative staff, all the Green Bay Packers players, and declare Friday, January 18, 2008 to be

Green Bay Packers Pride Day

throughout Milwaukee County, and I encourage all Milwaukee County employees to wear the team’s Green and Gold to wish them success in the NFC Championship.

Scott Walker
Milwaukee County Executive

(If I can figure out how to link to the original pdf, I will provide that as well)

What's In Your Wallet?

By 3rd Way

Gretchen of Milwaukee Rising did a quick study on the decline of housing prices in aldermanic district 7.  This inspired me to run an analysis of the housing prices in my hood.  Here in Bay View, the better east side of Milwaukee, housing prices have not falling as much as I feared they might have, but they have fallen about 4% from their peak.

In the first part of the year I bought my house (2005) the average price on 271 sales was $167,302.  In the first part of 2007 the average price on 145 sales was $161,588.

Meanwhile inflation is surging at a pace not seen since before the last Democratic administration and the stock markets have all dropped more than 10% in the last 3 months.  In this economic atmosphere it would be hard to convince anyone that the status quo is the best we can do. 

The economic apologists of the current administration are going to be hard pressed to make the case that their policies have benefitted the middle class when we can review our net worth and judge the results for ourselves.  Fairly or not the months leading up to the election are the only ones that will weigh heavily on most voters minds.  We can look at our 401K statements, review the sales prices of our neighbor’s houses and check our groceries bills to prove that our cost of living is going up while the worth of our assets are going down.  There is no think tank study that McIlheran or anyone else can site to disprove that.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

More Silliness From Walker

by capper

In the same email that he has his "Vote for me, I break promises" propoganda, Walker's campaign also included this little tidbit:

Milwaukee County Parks: Strong, Vibrant

In case you missed it, a recent MKE Online article highlighted the beauty of our parks throughout the seasons. While you may not read these positive stories in the news, the truth is that our parks are running strong and continue to be one of our best assets. County Executive Walker will continue to fight for innovative ways to maintain our park services without raising taxes.

This surprised me on two accounts. One, I didn't even know MKE was still in existence, much less that anyone actually read it.

Two was that the parks could be described as strong or vibrant. But then, as I researched this, I realized I was partially wrong. The parks are strong and vibrant--as long as they are in an area that also includes Walker's base.

Here are some pictures, courtesy of Gretchen Schuldt, contrasting the baseball diamonds in Washington Park in the heart of Milwaukee and McCarty Park in West Allis.














Washington Park


















McCarty Park























Washington Park























McCarty Park





















Washington Park





















McCarty Park


For other pictures of those Strong and Vibrant Parks you can find them on Gretchen's blogsite, Milwaukee Rising, here and here and here.

A Sure Sign That Your Campaign Is In Trouble

by capper

Scott Walker has sent out another email from his campaign. It reads:

Reason #1 to Vote for Scott Walker

While many politicians make promises about taxes during elections, Scott actually delivers on his promises. He said that he would not raise the property tax levy from the previous year, and he kept his word in each of his six county budgets. In fact, several of his budgets actually cut the tax levy.

To further his agenda of tax relief, Scott needs your help to elect more like-minded individuals to the County Board. With a few more Supervisors who are willing to look out for the taxpayer, Scott can have even greater success in 2008 and beyond - which means we all win as taxpayers.

Let's parse this out. "Scott actually delivers on his promises." Does that include his promise not to run for County Executive in 2008 or not to privatize? Apparently not. (Don't worry, I'll be doing more posts on his other broken promises later.)

And regarding the tax relief, well he might have been accurate on the syntax, but is slimy on the semantics. Walker has known all along that the County needs to raise taxes. After the last budget battle, with a 3% raise in taxes, he called it a "good budget." He has also repeatedly pushed for a regional parks authority and a regional transit authority, both of which would have the ability, and would exercise that ability, to raise the necessary taxes.

We have also seen how well his budgets have held up. There was the fiasco of closing the pools early during one of the hottest times of the year. There have been yearly budget blow-ups where the County had to scramble to find enough money and/or cut enough services to not go over budget. This past budget even set a record by blowing up before the ink was dried.

What good is a promise that is harmful?

And for the request for more supervisors that see his vision? Well, he tried that already. It didn't work for Chris Kujawa, and it's not going to work now. People are getting sick of his neglect of his duties. They sure aren't going to help him make it even worse.

Guiliani May Be Hazardous to Your Health

By Keith Schmitz

No wonder the Guiliani campaign is tanking.

Today the New York Times reported the findings of a study suggesting obsessing over terrorism can take a greater toll on one's health than terrorism itself:
After the attacks of Sept. 11, the scientists monitored people’s fears of terrorism over the next several years and found that the most fearful people were three to five times more likely than the rest to receive diagnoses of new cardiovascular ailments.

“It’s amazing how enduring these feelings of fear are, but look at what’s been going on,” said Alison Holman, a professor of nursing science at the University of California, Irvine, the lead author of the study. “I’d be surprised if those terrorist alerts didn’t contribute in some way to the ongoing worry about terrorism in our sample.”
Here's the payoff pitch:
After controlling for various factors (age, obesity, smoking, other ailments and stressful life events), the researchers found that the people who were acutely stressed after the 9/11 attacks and continued to worry about terrorism — about 6 percent of the sample — were at least three times more likely than the others in the study to be given diagnoses of new heart problems.

If you extrapolate that percentage to the adult population of America, it works out to more than 10 million people. No one knows what fraction of them might consequently die of a stroke or heart attack — plenty of other factors affect heart disease — but if it were merely 0.0003 percent, that would be higher than the 9/11 death toll.
The article talks about that these people will rationalize away the real risk against the imagined one because of the prospect (albeit slim) of masses of people dying at once. Sort of when someone has a fear of flying and will take to the road, despite the reality that a long trip in a car presents greater odds of dying in a crash than sitting in an airplane seat.

So it turns out constant mentioning of 9/11 can spark these fatal anxieties. Someone stop Guiliani before he kills again.

Lying Officials Or Just Bad Journalism?

by capper

Jay wrote a post about the bad economic news that has been hitting the papers and airwaves of late. In his piece, he linked to an article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that discusses the number of applicants for food stamps and financial aid has jumped by ten percent while the number of economic support workers have been cut on a yearly basis by Scott Walker.

In the comments thread, I mention that I thought there were some errors in the story. Namely, that some of the improvements that were being planned had indeed actually happened.

To double check that I had my facts correct, I contacted some people familiar with the economic support program. These are people that are currently working for or recently left that department.

I asked them about the article. The part of the article which reads:

The Milwaukee County Department of Health and Human Services knows it has a problem and said it is trying to fix it.

The department is planning a modernization initiative that would allow people to handle their cases over the Internet and the phone, said Corey Hoze, director of the department of human services.

*****
In Milwaukee, the county also plans to go to digital documents. Each year, about 100,000 documents must be processed by the agency, Hoze said. That creates a big backlog for the county. Also, people often submit documents more than once if their cases aren't handled quickly, adding to the backlog. With the new program, documents would be scanned and saved electronically.

My contacts were able to confirm that they have been indeed using this system for the past year to year and a half. So why is the article written in the future tense? Is this the way the Corey Hoze presented the information to the reporter? Did the reporter misunderstand Mr. Hoze? Or is the MSJ trying to make it look better than it really is? Like a "Oh, it's bad now, but Scott Walker will fix it" kind of story?

Furthermore, the story quotes Hoze as saying that the County had to apply for two waivers so that people don't have to come in for an interview. This is an effort to save time from having to actually see the people and find out whether there is any fraud going on. To be fair though, the people I spoke to did complain that the story did not share that the County apparently recovered a large number of fraud cases last year.

I will be first to admit the obvious--I don't like Scott Walker. But my statements above aren't due to any sort of "Walker Derangement Syndrome". There are reasons why I am suspicious of the both Hoze and MSJ.

Hoze ran unsuccessfully for the 4th district U.S. Congress seat. He lost in the primary. Since then he has held a job under TOMMY in the federal DHHS and two positions in the Walker administration. This makes me wonder if he is acting just like another politician, trying to protect his boss, thus protecting his job or if there is something else.

It could be that the reporter simply misunderstood Hoze. Or it could be that the Journal Sentinel was trying to minimize the damage to Walker by minimizing the damage done by Walker. Heck, for all I know, they might have just been trying to play a gotcha game ont he county workers (one of Walker's favorite targets), but didn't put too much effort into it.

No matter what the cause of the false reporting, it is still false reporting. For what the MSJ is charging for their paper, the least they could do is report the news accurately and honestly, and not in the sense that Faux News presents themselves to be fair and balanced.

Michigan

by folkbum

Clinton and, I don't know, let's say, Romney.


McIlheran Watch: Spot the flaws in choice logic

by folkbum

Yesterday, there was some conversation around on the Milwaukee Parental Choice (the "voucher") Program. Milwaukee legislator Fred Kessler's been circulating a proposal to change mostly funding aspects of the program. (Some details are in this article explaining that Kessler's being stood up in a meeting with Governor Doyle.)

My BFF Patrick McIlheran weighed in on Kessler's proposal here. Unsurprisingly, he opposes it. But McIlheran engages in some twisted logic in defense of the voucher program. Early in his post you have this (my emphasis):
If I'm deciphering Kessler's prose correctly, he's saying that if a choice school takes in a kid and his younger brother is, say, autistic, the choice school has to take the autistic younger brother. Well: Choice schools already must accept "special needs" children [. . .] but they're not required to bankrupt themselves in doing so.
If I'm deciphering McIlheran's prose correctly--and given that's he's made this same set of arguments before, I think I am--he's arguing that voucher schools shouldn't have to spend a lot of money to offer services to special needs students. Indeed, they do not have to provide any services under state law.

Further down in McIlheran's post, though, is this (again, my emphasis):
Oh, and if the program does get killed, some of those 7,000 children will end up in MPS--where per-pupil costs to taxpayers total something like $10,000.
He's not wrong about the extra cost of an average MPS student. But as I have demonstrated before, the per-pupil cost of a regular-education student in MPS is not significantly greater than the value of a voucher awarded to a choice participant, even factoring in our union teachers and state and federal mandates.

Instead, it's the cost of students with additional needs--special education students, in particular--who drive up the cost of an average MPS student. And as we learned last week, MPS's superintendent is expecting as many as 25% of all high school students will be special education eligible within a few years. That number is certainly not helped by voucher schools who refuse to provide services (Hey! We can't make them bankrupt themselves!) forcing parents back into MPS where, under threat of lawsuits and the federal hammer, we have to spend two, three, sometimes ten times what it costs to teach a regular-education student. In other words, MPS is required to "bankrupt itself" to teach these kids!

So there's your choice logic: We can't make these voucher schools take expensive-to-teach students, because they don't have the money. And, hey, look at that, vouchers are a bargain! McIlheran is trying to have it both ways with a heads I win-tails you lose argument. It's a deal stacked against MPS.

Anonymity versus Psuedonymity

by folkbum

One of the most common dismissive gestures I read on the interweb blog-tubes goes something like, "You don't even have the guts to put your name on your opinions." It becomes a cudgel when all else--logic, reason, politesse--fails and an argument can't be won on its merits.

I have little sympathy for this argument, even when we're talking about truly anonymous comments. I allow them here, and for the most part it isn't a problem. Any given comment thread here has few to no participants calling themselves "anonymous." Even those who do generally remain within bounds of acceptable discourse.

Other blogs also allow anonymous comments, and, again, usually there's no problem with what those folks say. But my main beef with anonymous comments is easily demonstrable in, say, just about any long thread at Shark and Shepherd: You get a number of different people posting as "anonymous" and it's hard to keep track of who says what.

A much better approach, I think, is to go the pseudonym route--a blogonym, if you will--and label yourself with something readily identifiable. A good pseudonymous blogger or commenter is, in my mind, no different than one who uses his or her real name. You become a recognized entity as your pseudonym, so people can get to know you, what you write, and how you think.

There are plenty such pseudonymous bloggers and members of the commentariat on both sides of the Cheddarsphere, even more if you extend it to people using just a first name. I got no beef with them, and I don't particularly care if I know their real names or not. Resorting to that real-name argument is just dumb in such cases, especially considering the long history our country's political discourse has with pseudonymity.

Monday, January 14, 2008

County Overwhelmed by Those Needing Assistance

by folkbum

I'm sure Patrick McIlheran would tell you that this, too, is a sign of the booming economy, and you're all too busy believing the media hype to realize how great the economy is:
Milwaukee County's welfare office has been overwhelmed with a record number of people seeking public assistance and doesn't have the staff to deal with the crush.

For those seeking services, that means they wait. On the phone. At the welfare office. And they sometimes go without benefits for longer than they should, the Public Investigator Team found.

The county's budget for administering its income assistance program has shrunk by about $1.7 million, or 10%, since 2002, according to the state. But the number of people seeking food stamps has risen by about 10.5%.
There's lots of blame to go around for this--Republican legislators targeting Milwaukee County, a county executive unwilling to stand up to those legislators or meet the needs of his residents, a federal government pursuing welfare-for-the-rich strategies. However, let's all keep this in mind the next time McIlheran wanders through to tell us how fantastic the economy is. You can also remind him of the increasing Milwaukee foreclosure rate (mirroring national trends) and the skyrocketing consumer bankruptcy rates we've seen in the last year.

It has been since November that McIlheran has tried his "the economy is great" schtick, which I suppose might mean he's given it up. Or it could just mean we're due.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

There Be Giants

But here be Giants Killers





















Anyone got extra tickets?

Good News for Milwaukee

by folkbum

I was wondering about this the other day, seeing the news of murders in several other places around the state, but I didn't say anything because, one, I wasn't sure I was right and, two, I didn't want to jinx it:
Twelve days into the new year, the city has yet to record its first homicide, police reported this morning.

That compares to three homicides reported for the same period in 2007, Milwaukee police Capt. Timothy Burkee said. Overall, 105 people were homicide victims in 2007, two more than had been recorded the year before.
What are the odds we can keep this up?

Saturday, January 12, 2008

A Voice Made for Blogging . . .

. . . and a face made for radio.

by folkbum

Milwaukee's public radio station, WUWM (available at 89.7 FM on the radio dial--yes, people, there's an entire band of radio out there that is not AM!--and via streaming audio at WUWM.com), is doing a series this year on Wisconsin bloggers on their "Lake Effect" program. They are starting the series with a handful of political bloggers this week: I'm on Monday, Michael Mathias of Pundit Nation is scheduled for Wednesday, and Rick Esenberg of Shark and Shepherd will appear this week as well.

I'm apparently leading off the show Monday. Jane Hampden, the host and producer, begins the interview by saying I've been called Milwaukee's premier liberal blogger, or somesuch. That kind of threw me for a loop--I don't call myself that--and the rest of the interview just went downhill.

If you can't catch the show when it airs Monday at 10 AM and 11 PM, you can always listen to the on-line archives the next day.

Taylor vs. Walker: On The Budget

by capper

Ever since the pension scandal that swept Scott Walker into office, the budget for Milwaukee County has been a contentious issue. To be fair, Walker walked into a big pile of crap, thanks to his predecessor, F. Thomas Ament. There were difficult decisions to be made and bold actions needed to be taken.

Instead of making those decisions or taking those actions, Walker instead chose to allow the County to become decimated. When confronted on this, Walker would through up his hands and blame the pension. Even when warned of the pending exodus of County workers in 2004, and the large payouts that would be caused by this, Walker ignored these warnings and refused to plan for this inevitability.

During his entire tenure, Walker has refused to budge on his ill conceived promise of no tax hikes. Not only did he refuse to budge, but his only solution was to cut services. He slashed bus routes until there was a populist-type of uprising. He allowed the parks to deteriorate into brownfields. He denied services to the mentally ill until the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel did a whole series of articles exposing his neglect. He also cut services to those seeking help with their addictions to drugs and/or alcohol. He has crippled the courthouse and has diminished the presence of the Sheriff's Office until there was an outcry about the crimes going on in the parks. He has cut positions at the House of Corrections until the number of inmates escaping to commit further crimes, including murder, made its way to the papers. He has sold of highly-valued County property at sweetheart prices.

Now, Walker apparently feels that he has weakened the County enough. His newest proposals include selling off more of the dwindling county assets. What he doesn't sell off, Walker wants to now privatize, even though he was against it before. I am sure this will sell well with his shrinking base, but the latest polls show that it is not nearly as popular with the public in general.

In other words, he doesn't care about preserving what is left of the County, but would rather allow his pals feed off the carrion, and then boasting that he saved the average taxpayer a whole six dollars in taxes.

In contrast to Walker's scorched earth principle of budgeting, Senator Taylor has a whole different approach. While Senator Taylor is aware of the crush that the average taxpayer is feeling, she is also keenly aware of the importance to maintain the level of service and the quality of life that people want. She also realizes the larger cost that will fall on the County if proper standards aren't maintained. This is evidenced by her saying, "How does one take an infrastructure, not provide maintenance for it for years, and expect it to be OK?"

In the appearance I was able to attend, Senator Taylor outlined four things she would do differently.

First, she would assess the assets that the County has, and what would be the best way to utilize them. Just not what would win her political favor, or gain her support from the special interests, like you know who has been doing.

Second, she wants to get full funding from the State. She said that at budget time, she will be on the phone so much and visiting State legislators so much, that they "will think I am still a Senator." This contrasts starkly with Walker, who in last year's budget delays, planned on the Democratic version of the budget, while at the same time bad-mouthing it. And there was no evidence that he was trying to lobby legislators from either party to take the burden off of Milwaukee County taxpayers.

It should be also noted that during the last state budget, Senator Taylor has managed to get millions of dollars to come to Milwaukee County that wouldn't have otherwise. This money went to help the Milwaukee Public Schools, the Milwaukee County Transit System, Child Support Enforcement, and the courts.

Thirdly, Senator Taylor would regain access to federal monies that Walker has left on the table. She would apply for grants, improve parts of the county, and take other actions that would increase the flow of federal money to help keep costs to the average taxpayer down. Yes, yes, I know, federal money is still coming from the taxpayer, but keep in mind that this is money that has already been collected. It would be going to us, rather than other silly things, like protecting the Corn Palace from terrorists. (If the Senator is reading this, one thing that pops to mind is getting the mental health complex accredited again. This would increase Title XIX proceeds again. It used to be accredited, but Walker let that lapse, because it would have cost money to maintain proper standards to remain accredited.)

The Senator's fourth point is collaboration. She would work with the various cities in the County, the various school districts and neighboring counties to see where services could be combined to help defray costs.

The example she used for this point was cutting grass. The county has their own lawn mowers and people to operate them. Each city in the county, have their own people using their own machines to cut their properties. Each school district has the same thing going on as well. She said that she would try to join forces with the cities and the school districts to combine the pools of equipment and the staff members to run it, in an effort to help defray the costs, while maintaining a well-maintained community.

In summary, both candidates are focused on not raising taxes any more than necessary (yes, even Walker tacitly agreed for the need to raise taxes), but Senator Taylor's plan goes farther by also wanting to maintain the infrastructure, the same or better levels of services, and the high quality of life that people want.

To learn more about Senator Taylor, you can find her campaign's home page here. If you wish to make a contribution, you can do that on this site. If you want to help in other ways, this is the page that will help you join her team.

A Third Way Forward

by 3rd Way

Until recently it appeared as if Obama was willing to shun FoxNews in protest to their partisan coverage. It would spell doom for his candidacy if he were to do so. Fox has far too many viewers to disregard them completely. Although unable to continue them, Obama's actions sent a good message. Divisive partisan media of any stripe isn't worthy of our attention.

I pride myself in being an individual that attempts to pull my information from as many sources as I possible in the attempt to stay non-partisan. I certainly lean left, but I try to respect and appreciate the arguments of all parts of the political spectrum. I honestly belief that in nearly any political movement you can name there is a way to find some merits in some of their arguments. With that conviction in mind I fairly recently became active in what I would come to know as the cheddarsphere. In my travels throughout the cheddarsphere I encountered heaps of ridiculous partisan arguments, websites devoted to discrediting other websites and witnessed an individuals arrest for foolish comments. The thing I found most striking with the local blogs was the disrespect and outright hatred in the tone of much of the discourse. Throughout all of this I tried to keep my mind open and refrain from partaking in any sort of discourse I would not conduct if I were conversing face to face, although I was unable to always remain above the fray with my comments.

A local blog advertises itself with this: "DISCUSS IDEAS HERE, WE ASK THAT YOU KEEP YOUR TONE IN CHECK AND RESPECT THOSE WHO ARE WILLING TO SHARE." In reality the blog functions the same way as most message boards you will encounter. The partisan vitriol boils over the instant a divergent viewpoint is heard. The attacks and insults thrown around would never be encountered if we led a purely analog existence. Anonymous digital communication has brought this incivility into our lives. Yesterday I became fed up with the intolerance of divergent viewpoints and vowed to stop wasting my time commenting somewhere that is not interested in fostering a productive debate. In my final comment I bid farewell and regretfully referred to the blog owner as a dolt and noted some of his observable physical traits. I had no intention of returning, but for this transgression I was banned from the website. This is the same website where I observed a commenter threaten (non-jokingly he assured) to break another commenter's legs. In that instance the offending comment was deleted without any acknowledgment that it had ever occurred nor any ban imposed on the commenter.

As the sole proprietors of their sites bloggers and their commenters are free to partake in whatever sort of shenanigans they wish. It is a harmless source of entertainment for many. When employees of the largest media conglomerate in the state start to play the disrespectful bipartisan games of the blogosphere I call foul. One of the most influential radio personalities in our state drew criticism from the community for promoting the offensive satire of a local blogger. My introduction to the blogosphere started with frequent and mostly cordial debate with a prominent editorialist for this same conglomerate. After a post that stated it was only a matter of time until the American left was siding with Jihadists I decided it was time to stop dignifying his partisan drivel with my audience. As consumers of media and participants in debate the only recourse we have to combat caustic bipartisanship is by refusing to participate.

The dichotomy of right vs. left / red vs. blue that frames every political issue has been detrimental to our political process and it is certainly detrimental to political discourse. Bipartisans among us will continue to disrespect, and not debate, the viewpoints of others if there is no consequence for their actions. If those of us that belief that neither side has all the answers were willing to adopt a third perspective, disregard the extremists and promote non-partisanship maybe we could someday see an improvement in online and political civility. We would all be better served if those that wish to sow the seeds of division and vilify those of divergent views were shunned by the rest of us. I will support anyone that sees a third way to approaches our partisan political atmosphere. Early in this presidential nomination process I knew who had my support.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Conservative Bias about Media Bias

by folkbum

The right-o-sphere is a-flutter over this:
NBC's Brian Williams took to MSNBC today at noon and had this to say:
WILLIAMS: I interviewed Lee Cowan, our reporter who covers Obama, while we were out yesterday and posted the interview on the web. Lee says it's hard to stay objective covering this guy. Courageous for Lee to say, to be honest. The e-mail flood started out we caught you guys, we never did trust you. That kind of thing. I think it is a very interesting dynamic. I saw middle-aged women just throw their arms around Barack Obama, kiss him hard on the cheek and say, you know, I'm with you, good luck. And I think he feels it, too.
For example, there's The Game ("Created to give example after example of media bias, left wing lies, and the PC world"), who said, "Give him credit for admitting what he thinks. Now if we could get the other 90% of the media that thinks like him to be honest maybe we can get somewhere."

Rick Esenberg opines (his emphasis), "Perhaps it is courageous to admit your man crush, but it would be professional for a journalist not to compound it by announcing that this candidate is so wonderful that we can barely hang on to our virtue."

I'll begin by pointing out that Brian Williams clarified his point:
Lee admits "...it's almost hard to remain objective..." which as he implies is our goal in our work every day. He's referring to what all of us who have covered campaigns have felt from time to time: it's impossible to get the long view...the view from 40,000 feet...while operating at sea level, and inside the bubble. Lee was talking about the swirl of excitement that has hit the Obama campaign after Iowa -- the crowds, the hoopla -- all of it.
Which is not quite the same as the fawning over Barack Obama that our Right Cheddarsphere friends presumed.

But that's not my point. What I find most bothersome about the whole affair is that as quick as the right has been to denounce this supposed pro-Obama bias (Game and Esenberg are not the only two by any means), they seem perfectly willing to let more blatant examples of bias slip by. Take this one, for example:
Hillary stepped onto the parked press bus in Indianola for about 90 seconds to deliver bagels and coffee, and I'm not sure what this says about Clinton and the press--the chill, I think, comes from both sides--but it was a strange moment. She expressed her sympathies that we're away from our families and "significant others," tried a joke at the expense of her press secretary, and paused. Nobody even shouted a question, whether because of the surprise, the assumption that she wouldn't actually answer, or the sheer desire to end the encounter.

One reporter compared the awkwardness to running unexpectedly into an ex-girlfriend.

"Maybe we should go outside and warm up," said another, as Clinton exited into the freezing air.
For our friends on the right it's horrible when a reporter covering the candidate gets caught up in the excitement of that campaign--even as that reporter makes it clear he's trying to keep an objective sensibility. Moreover, the right assumes that Cowen is representative of the whole media enchilada, that the press covering the campaigns is inherently pro-Democrat and anti-Republican. But the right's just willing to let it slide when the press covering Hillary Clinton hates her. And there's more:
As is so often the case, Maureen Dowd today unintentionally provides a perfect view of the core sickness of our press corps:
When I walked into the office Monday, people were clustering around a computer to watch what they thought they would never see: Hillary Clinton with the unmistakable look of tears in her eyes.

A woman gazing at the screen was grimacing, saying it was bad. Three guys watched it over and over, drawn to the "humanized" Hillary. One reporter who covers security issues cringed. "We are at war," he said. "Is this how she'll talk to Kim Jong-il?"

Another reporter joked: "That crying really seemed genuine. I'll bet she spent hours thinking about it beforehand." He added dryly: "Crying doesn't usually work in campaigns. Only in relationships."

Bill Clinton was known for biting his lip, but here was Hillary doing the Muskie. Certainly it was impressive that she could choke up and stay on message.
Dowd is describing here the conversation that took place in her "office"--which happens to be the newsroom of The New York Times--between what are undoubtedly very Serious Journalists, including one who covers (said with whispered reverence) "security issues."
This isn't even some second-hand reporting of a conversation on the bus. This is a premier columnist for the New York Times laying bare the hatred that press of all stripes--even the "liberal" NYT!--have for Clinton.

This rightie hand-wringing over Cowen is unimpressive, to say the least, when they are perfectly happy to let the press hate Clinton with abandon.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Psych 101

by capper

Dad29, a sometimes reasonable person, put up this picture and opened the comment thread for discussion.

My new friend, Billiam, put up this comment:

Hmmm, because 2 men holding hands is not natural. 2 men holding guns is an exercise of a Right Guaranteed by The Constitution. Now, no one is trying to ban men holding hands. Sadly, the same can't be said of a Constitutional Right.

Seeing that Bill is a conservative, this would seem a logical response for him. Wrong, but logical.

Wrong in the sense that just this past year, Wisconsin joined a number of other states in banning gay marriage. No states have banned the 2nd Amendment, although to be honest, there have been attempts.

But the answer to the question can be found in any Psych 101 text. It is a version of the fight or flight response. When people encounter something that is foreign to them, or that they don't understand, it is human nature for the person to feel threatened. When faced with a threat, real or perceived, it is also human nature to want to flee from it, or to fight it.

Since homosexuality is not the norm for most people, and many, including myself, can't understand the feelings that a homosexual person may be experiencing, it makes them foreign, and people have a hard time accepting that. Since the normal person would feel rather silly running everytime they encounter a homosexual or find themselves faces with the fact of homosexuality, they respond with fear, which leads to anger, which helps with distancing themselves emotionally.

I have had many gay friends. The man that married me and mrs. capper was gay, as was one of our ushers. We attend the usher's commitment ceremony. Even though I cannot understand the homosexual point of view, I can understand that it is not a threat to me, my masculinity, or my marriage. That is why I had voted no against the ban, and hope to see it repealed some day. It is nothing more than prejudice against gays.

But the thing that really prompted me to write on this subject wasn't Dad's post or Bill's comment. It was another comment by someone named Amy:

Yes, Billiam did (nail it), with an extension: we are also endowed with a God-given right to protect ourselves, and Catholic teaching recognizes that right beyond even the Constitution.

That only made me think of this:

People don't realize that change is a two-way street

by folkbum

All the talk about change in this presidential election reminds of the best change-makers I know.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Did you see what I just did there?

by folkbum

I jinxed it for both Obama and Romney. Kiss of death, I tell you. Kiss of death.

Senator Lena Taylor

by capper

I have written several posts over the last few months expressing my opinion about Scott Walker and the way he has performed (or didn't perform) his duties as Milwaukee County Executive.

Over the past few weeks, I have had the opportunity to see Senator Lena Taylor at appearances, meet with her personally, and have had several conversations with her and her campaign manager, John Zapfel. I have asked Senator Taylor and Mr. Zapfel for her positions on many subjects, ranging from the general approach to how she would perform as County Executive, to specifics of each area, such as the parks, transit, corrections, and social services.
And yes, I even asked her about how she would pay for her ideas (and as the right-wingers will be disappointed to find out, it doesn't involve taxing the daylights out of people).

As time allows, and current events dictate, I will be writing a series of posts comparing Senator Taylor and Scott Walker, both on the similarities and differences in their positions. And as one may have surmised, even though I do have some concerns about Senator Taylor, she is, in my opinion, the far better candidate to lead Milwaukee County out of the path of self-destruction that it is currently on.

As I stated above, I have had the opportunity to meet with Senator Taylor, to see her address an audience live, and to have conversations with her. I found her to be very personable. While she is very vocal on her opinions and can be quite outspoken, she also presents herself as very down to earth and aware of what the average person goes through on a daily basis, including the struggles of child care, family crises, and the challenges of making ends meet.

She is respectful of the people she is addressing, even if they do not always return that same respect. She is very candid and open about some of the struggles she and her family has gone through in the past. She also speaks very lovingly of her mother, her brother and her son, Isaiah. You can compare her speaking style at this site and this one to the jilted, scripted approach of Walker's for yourself.

Senator Taylor told me that when she left Milwaukee to get her law degree in Carbondale, Illinois, she had vowed to herself that she would never return to Milwaukee. She said that she was "sick of all the '-isms'" in Milwaukee. However, after she left Milwaukee, she found that the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence, and that she still cared about Milwaukee and the people that lived here. That is why she came back, and started to work to make things better for everyone.

She also told me that it is her compassion for Milwaukee and its citizens that led her to make the decision to leave a cozy job in the State Senate to come back and run for County Executive. She said that she is aware of the frustration and anger people are feeling as they see the parks deteriorate, bus routes get cut, and the general quality of life going downhill. She also is aware of people becoming angry as Scott Walker continued to pander to his base and break promise after promise to appease his base.

To learn more about Senator Taylor, you can find her campaign's home page here. If you wish to make a contribution, you can do that on this site. If you want to help in other ways, this is the page that will help you join her team.

NCLB: Happy Anniversary

by folkbum

Or not.

Monday, January 07, 2008

We Have Met The Enemy...

by capper

I'm sorry, but this is too funny.

Walker has sent out an email updating his base about the election, and of course, to hit them up for money. Here is an excerpt from his newsletter:


With No Primary Election, Race IntensifiesOnly one other candidate for County Executive was able to collect the number of signatures needed to be placed on the ballot, and there will not be a primary election in February. This makes Scott the number one target of the old political machine, which is desperate to take over once again. In fact, our opponent and special interest groups in Madison and Washington, DC are preparing to spend $1 million to defeat him. They want to go back to a day when the County Executive wasn't held accountable - and they will do whatever it takes to win. In order to combat the negative attacks they are launching, we need your financial help today.

Despite the "special interest groups" being the unions, who could understandably be upset that someone would want to take away their jobs, and despite he is the one that went into the last quarter of last year with over $650,000, and that is why Senator Lena Taylor's made the statement about needing nearly $1 million, and despite that neither side has run one ad yet, is the great link. In case you missed it, the link identified as his opponent leads us to this article from MSJ:

Walker seeking another 4 years as exec

More cost-cutting planned for county

By STEVE SCHULTZEmailto:SCHULTZEsschultze@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Dec. 1, 2007

Rededicating himself as a conservative crusader, Scott Walker wants four more years as Milwaukee County executive so he can do more to streamline county services and cut costs.
Apparently, even Walker is endorsing Senator Taylor to be the County Executive.

New Hampshire

by folkbum

Obama and, let's say, Romney. The comments are open.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

MSJ Endorses Walker

by capper

Well, OK, they haven't made an official endorsement yet. But today, the so-called "liberal" Milwaukee Journal Sentinel made their position known. First, there is the hatchet job attempted by Dan Bice.

Then the editorial for the day gets all mambsy-pambsy about Walker's privatization efforts, including giving him an entire article accredited to him praising privatization. Not bad for a supposedly liberal paper.

Of course, a liberal paper, or even neutral one, might have pointed out that Walker's statements on privatization haven't always been congruent or consistent. Or they may have given someone, like Lena Taylor, even space to rebut his wrong-headed argument.

I guess I shouldn't be so upset about it, they do have a history of doing this sort of thing.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

For the idiots who try to tell me that Mike Huckabee is a Democrat

by folkbum

If he were a Democrat, he wouldn't be at the bottom of my freakin' list.
96% Mike Gravel
96% Dennis Kucinich
85% Chris Dodd
85% Barack Obama
84% John Edwards
82% Joe Biden
81% Hillary Clinton
75% Bill Richardson
33% Rudy Giuliani
25% Ron Paul
20% John McCain
15% Tom Tancredo
14% Mitt Romney
14% Mike Huckabee
6% Fred Thompson

2008 Presidential Candidate Matching Quiz

Well, it's not me, if that's what you're thinking

by folkbum
Obama: major Wisconsin endorsement
By Craig Gilbert
Saturday, Jan 5 2008, 07:11 AM

Nashua, New Hampshire -- The Obama campaign says it plans to announce a "major" Wisconsin endorsement this afternoon. Speculation centers on Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle. More later.
I have nothing against Obama--I will be excited to see him as the nominee (or Clinton or Edwards)--but I am not endorsing at this time. But thank you for wondering if it was me.

What Does Google Think of Me?

by folkbum

Right now, as I type this, the Google ads there to the right on this very page are, in order, these:
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I can't for the life of me tell you what that means.

(Clicking on the Google ads helps support this blog and its writers--yes, my fellow contributors, I'm working on how to get some of that back to you, too--and may just score you a girlfriend.)

Friday, January 04, 2008

Can This Be Cured

By Keith Schmitz

Although Charlie might disagree with this, the 9/11 thing has become some kind of psychotic disorder with Guiliani:

He flatlined in Iowa and he's struggling in New Hampshire, but
Rudy Giuliani shook off the early-state blues Thursday as only he can.

"None of this worries me - Sept. 11, there were times I was worried," Giuliani said.

"We're sitting in a pretty good position right now. So we're not worried and not concerned," he told a news conference here. "Maybe other people acted nervous in a situation like this, but this is not unexpected."
I always scandalously wondered what why Princess Dianne was revered for basically appearing at social functions, proving Woody Allen's phrase "80% of the job is just showing up." At least Di did go out to the real rugged places to show solidarity with her causes. For Rudy, the only rugged place he's been is to stop in on Bernie Karek, and pretty much 80% of his campaign is based on just showing up on 9/11.

The Onion by the way has a great take on Rudy's 9/11 fixation.

Clarke And Walker Are On The Same Page

by capper

Sheriff David Clarke is making the news again. And once again, he is not doing it for anything constructive, by, oh, I don't know, doing his job and fighting crime.

No this time we have two stories. One story shows how the deputies union is seeking $50,000 from Milwaukee County for legal costs in getting a court ruling that Clarke cannot force his religious views on his deputies. Oh well, when one takes in all the other lawsuits, 50 grand is just a drop in the bucket for Clarke.

The other story is a follow up on an inmate that escaped from the county jail. The story was originally reported a few days ago. Clarke blamed the escape on the inmate changing his wristband with another inmate. He said that this is the oldest trick in the corrections system and called his staff "dumb" for falling for it and threatened their jobs.

Today, we see that there was an extra step in jail security that would have prevented this from happening. The inmate who is to be released first needs to have his identity confirmed by checking his fingerprints before his release. However, the fingerprint machine is broken. In fact, according to the union, it has been broken for about a year. Even Clarke's spokesperson confirms that it is broken.

In other words, Clarke willfully fails to give the deputies and the correction officers working at the jail the equipment they need to perform their jobs, and then blames them for not being able to do their jobs. He obviously took this page from Walker's playbook. Walker has already blamed several corrections officers and a corrections manager for not being able to do their jobs, even though he would not give them the necessary equipment or manpower to do so.

Do these guys really think it is cheaper to fight and lose all these lawsuits and hearings, rather than just do the right thing in the first place? The bad news is we can't do anything about Clarke, yet. The good news is that we can send him a message by getting rid of Walker. Please vote for Lena Taylor, so we can stop hearing these stories of incompetency from our county leaders.

RIP, Judicial Ethics

by folkbum

Sigh:
A panel of three appeals judges recommended Thursday that state Supreme Court Justice Annette K. Ziegler be reprimanded by her colleagues on the high court for mishandling cases when she was a Washington County circuit judge. [. . .]

Ziegler should have known not to handle those cases, the panel said in its unanimous recommendation.

"Red flags of danger were prominently flying," the panel wrote. "Justice Ziegler did not see them."

But the panel also found Ziegler acted "without moral culpability" because she did not mean to violate the ethics code and did not benefit herself or her family by ruling on the cases.
Well, gosh, officer, I didn't mean to speed by so much, and, I mean, it's not making me rich or anything . . . how about just a warning?

RIP, Lee Sherman Dreyfus

by folkbum

I would be remiss if I didn't also comment on the biggest Wisconsin political story of the day yesterday, which is the passing of the last great Republican governor of Wisconsin, Lee Dreyfus.

I was not entirely wrong

by folkbum

A few weeks ago, back when it was still 2007 and I could still eat solid food (yesterday I ate soup!), I made a few predictions about Iowa.
If I had to bet--and I don't think I would, because there is no clear frontrunner in Iowa on either side right now, but if someone gave me two quarters and said, "Here, bet these"--if I had to bet, I would bet on Hillary Clinton and Willard "Mitt" Romney.
I missed that, but hedged enough, I think, that I'm in the clear. Look, it was close, particularly for the Democrats. When you look at the totals, in fact, you see that Obama, Clinton, and Edwards are estimated to receive 16, 15, and 14 of Iowa's delegates to the convention--aside from a three-way tie, that's really as close as you can get to even.
Even if Clinton comes in second--I have a hard time seeing her third--the other two will have to work hard to stop her.
That "I have a hard time . . ." aside is where I most blew it, because, despite the fact that she's being estimated to receive one delegate more than Edwards, she lost to him by about a quarter of a percent. In real terms, that's negligible. In rhetorical terms, that huge for Edwards. He's still the longest shot of the three, of course, but those few hundred extra caucusers are a big get for him.

If Obama can turn out independents the way he did students in Iowa, then this is over--two for two is going to be the media's definition of de facto winning, even though there could be time for Clinton to catch up.
So, Romney-Huckabee-McCain (probably) or Huckabee-Romney-McCain
The second of those two was right. Fred Thompson made a better showing than I expected, tying McCain for third--beating him, actually, by a couple hundred votes, though the full totals still aren't in for the GOP. Although for both McCain and Thompson, that's kind of academic, as they were a full 20% behind front-runner Huckabee, and more than 10% behind Romney.

Everyone is loving on McCain--he didn't campaign in Iowa but still did as well as people who did--but will it be enough to win him Hew Hampshire over Romney? We'll see.

Thompson's finish means the odds are about 50-50, I think, that Sean Hackbarth will really need a couch to sleep on next week. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have already dropped out on the Democrats' side, and Republican Duncan Hunter will also find the exit soon.

In any case, I still don't see how our votes here on February 19 will matter much. In fact, most of the Milwaukee area won't even have reason to turn out and vote in local races that day--though I will have two primaries to vote in.

Here's the best news I've read, though:
Total Voter Turnout (approximate): 356,000

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama (D)
20.5% Edwards (D)
19.8% Clinton (D)
11.4% Huckabee (R)
Democrats are as fired up this year as we were in 2006. That's a very good sign.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Sean Hackbarth may need to borrow your couch

by folkbum

It's Politico, so, you know, take it for what it's worth:
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus. [. . .]

A Thompson campaign source said there is “a strong likelihood” that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon—most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates.
When Sean Hackbarth comes back from DC next week, he may need a place to crash. Hope someone can hook him up . . .

The Golden Compass

by folkbum

Question first, for those who don't read past the first paragraph: Is there anyone who's seen the film and read the book who can tell me whether the film is worth seeing?

After Bill Donohue told me not to the read the book or see the movie, I decided that it was imperative to do so. A very nice person gave me the three-in-one package for Christmas, and I read it, much of it on a beach in the tropics.

It's easy to see why Those Who Make A Living Blowing Everything Out Of Proportion some on the Institutional Right would hate the living daylights out of Phillip Pullman's books. Without giving away anything, the books touch on the way organized religion pathologizes pleasure, the brutality and ineffectiveness of torture, the horrors of endemic poverty and class prejudice, the ugliness of bigotry, the militarization of academia, and even the effects of global warming.

What probably upsets them most is the books' ultimate take-away message: That it is critically important to be thoughtful, creative, and independent while being altruistic and giving; that the secret to eternal happiness is not rote service to the dictates of a self-interested hierarchy, but to live a robust and spirited life.

More than that, the books are good-- well-written, briskly paced and worth the read, whether or not you, like me, are predisposed to like what Bill Donohue hates.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Why Ron Paul is like Howard Dean

by folkbum

One sad lesson I learned (of many) from the Dean campaign of 2004 is that most candidates have a lot of people who will show their support by giving money, and exponentially more people who show up to vote--or caucus as the case may be. That was not true for Howard Dean, and it will not prove true for Ron Paul.

Dean raised a lot of money from a lot of people, and I'm willing to be that pretty much every single one of those people showed up to vote, but not many more. John Kerry had poor fundraising but made up for it in, you know, actual voters.

Ron Paul's supporters (often willingly blind and deaf to the candidate's racist past, and his otherwise general nuttiness) certainly can raise the money. And I have no doubt that everyone who gives will show up to caucus/ vote/ participate. But Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney aren't raising that kind of cash and will far out-poll Paul everywhere, starting tomorrow in Iowa.

Ron Paul supporters everywhere will learn the same thing in the next few weeks that I learned in 2004.

Country Roads

by capper

The one negative that I had from the weekend was driving on some of the country roads. The County roads and state highways were just fine. Well plowed and salted.

The country roads on the other hand had about an inch of ice on them, which was covered by another inch of snow. Instead of salt, or a salt and sand mixture, it was just sand. Which apparently had been administered with a salt shaker that had half its holes plugged up. I never knew sand was a precious commodity.

Needless to say, mrs. capper and I were very glad that we had good tires and good traction control. There were enough cars in the ditches without adding ours.

So, I went into town on Monday to find out why the back roads were in such terrible shape. I found out that the county plows the state highways and the county roads, but the back country roads were privatized. Apparently, they give a local construction company a contract with a flat amount to do the plowing for the year. If you complain to the government, they refer you to the company, which conveniently has no one available to take calls.

Then I came home and was perusing the blogosphere and saw Nick Schweitzer's view of privatization and this:

Then the next time someone suggests we "privatize" something, the liberals go through the list of the other things we pseudo-privatized and shows what a bad job they've done, and how we've had to bail them out. And to a certain extent, they're absolutely right. The myth is that this can be used as proof that private enterprise is less efficient than government at doing something. But if you never fully cut the cord, and let private enterprise take care of something soup to nuts, then it's not actually privatization. Call it something else... boondogglization, nonprofitization... whatever.... but it sure as hell isn't privatization.

Uh, Nick, privatization your way doesn't work any better than the other way. Sorry.

Ironically, I also received the property tax. The township's share dropped $4.35. Oh boy. Does anyone know a tow truck company and body shop that would fix a car for $4.35? If not, then slap the five bucks back onto my taxes and plow and salt the roads the right way, please.

Ending 2007 On A High Note

by capper

As one could logically infer from my last post, I was a little fed up with the state of blogging and the high and mighty approach some people have been taking. Fortunately for me, and you, the reader, I was able to get away from the computer and have some quality time in the woods. Nothing like the peace and quiet of nature to get oneself grounded again.

Even though I was away from the computer, I was not away from blogging. I had the opportunity to meet and have lunch with Billiam of View From the Cheap Seats. I know, I know-I was taking a big risk by putting my anonymity on the line, not to mention meeting with a conservative blogger (with an odd fixation with duct tape) on my own. But I know that Tim Rock had met with him and survived, and I believed that Billiam was a man of enough integrity that he would not "out" me and blow my anonymity.

But I found Billiam to be a decent sort of fellow and we hit it off rather well. Our conversation went all over the map from local politics (taxes) to international events (the Bhutto assassination) to the state of blogging. We disagreed on many things, but always civilly. No name calling, no threats, no acts of desperately stretching a point beyond credibility.

The uplifting things were where we found common ground. There was much more than one might have thought. And even where we disagreed, we were able to understand where the other person was coming from.

I know that this is nothing new. As I already mentioned, Tim had met Bill, and survived. Jay was even courageous enough to be seen on public television with Owen Robinson, and they didn't kill each other.

I was just happy to have my faith in the world restored a little bit.

Now back to the bashing...

(Sidenote to Tim: Bill said that the three of us should get together. You don't have a duct tape fixation as well, do you?)

2008

by folkbum

I have a pretty good track record when it comes to year-end predictions for the next twelve months--I have never been wrong.

That's because I don't make predictions, of course.

However, This year I thought I would take a stab at a few. Some are serious, some are in jest. I look forward to seeing how I do.
  1. An embarrassing number of these predictions will be wrong.
  2. Some conservative Cheddarspherean will misconstrue a cold snap as evidence that global climate change is imaginary, which will really just provide evidence of his or her scientific illiteracy. (If Jib had posted this a few days later than he did, he would have proved me right already.)
  3. A Milwaukee-based conservative talk show host will say something worthy of a suspension--or dismissal--even in the eyes of many conservative fans. He will probably not suffer any consequences.
  4. One or more anonymous Wisconsin bloggers will un-anonymize themselves.
  5. One or more conservative Wisconsin bloggers will claim that Democrats stole one or more elections.
  6. That particular widely-linked and widely-read conservative blogger that shall remain nameless (but Patrick McIlheran thinks he's interesting!) will continue to write posts that are racist, sexist, anti-muslim, or all three at once, and the right will keep reading him and thinking he's interesting. A lefty will slip up once and call somebody a name and suddenly the same righties will turn into the propriety police, citing that as an example of "the hate left." I know--deja vu.
  7. The Iron Man movie will be universally panned.
  8. The Wigderson-Boots and Sabers feud will finally boil over. I don't know what will happen, but rest assured, Wiggy will be smirking when he types the tale.
  9. Dennis Troha won't have Jim Doyle's smoking gun.
  10. Everyone will have a good laugh at how stupid some beauty queen is.
  11. Ben & Jerry's will once again decline to name an ice cream flavor in honor of me. (And we all know "folkbum's bananas and nuts" would have been a hit.)
  12. Party control of both houses of the legislature, both federally and in Wisconsin, will not change.
  13. The Democrat will be elected president in November.
  14. Google will buy something else big and unexpected. Perhaps a small country.
  15. Steve Kagen will be re-elected, causing Kevin Binversie to nearly stroke out.
  16. Louis Butler will also be re-elected. Or, rather, elected, as he was appointed.
  17. I will continue not to give a rip about any Wisconsin sports teams.
  18. George W. Bush will pardon fewer people than you expect, mostly because he's done such a good job obstructing prosecutions that not many people have been convicted. However, most of this list will get pardons in their Christmas stockings.
  19. Eventually, every lefty blogger in Wisconsin will work for me.
  20. I will continue not to be invited as a panelist on "Sunday Insight."
  21. Milwaukee Alderman Michael McGee, Jr., will be convicted on most if not all state and federal charges.
  22. Tom Barrett will be re-elected--by a lot.
  23. Once again I will find myself too busy working this summer to respond to complaints about how I get my summers off.
  24. By the end of the year, we will still have very serious people telling us that "the next three months" in Iraq will prove to be the most critical.
  25. I will be able to eat solid food again. (So far in 2008, it's been iffy. Ugh.)
  26. Ryan Adams will put out three or four more records this year.
  27. The person I hope will win "Top Chef" won't. They never do. I'm like the kiss of death.
  28. The WGA writer's strike will eventually end, but only after people remember how stupid "American Gladiators" is.
  29. "The Simpsons" will continue to suck nowadays.
  30. The United States will win more gold medals than any other country at the Olympics this summer.
And with that, I have made more predictions than Wigderson. Have a good 2008.