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Thursday, November 06, 2008

Predictions v. Reality; Contest Winner CORRECTED

by folkbum

Here's how I did with the few predictions I made. I'm not entirely sure what it means that I underestimated Democrats' performance except in both the US and Wisconsin Senate. Hm.

question   my guess   reality    √ or X 
Prez       Obama      Obama        √
EVs        338-200    364-174*     X
House      D251-R184  D256-R179*   X
Senate     D57-R41-I2 D55-R43-I2*  X
WI Assemb  D50-R48-I1 D52-R46-I1   X
WI Senate  D19-R14    D18-R15      X

(* There are a few things up in the air, but I allocated the unknowns based on who was leading at this moment. So, Obama gets North Carolina's EVs, while McCain gets Missouri's and the hold-out Nebraska EV. Republicans are winning 5 of the 6 uncalled House races, and I split Louisiana's two run-off races, which is probably how they will go in December anyway. Democrats get the Oregon Senate seat, but not Alaska, Minnesota, or Georgia, where there will be a runoff.)

The contest results are also in:

question   reality    best guess  submitted by     
Prez       Obama      Obama       All but Dean & Dan
EVs        364-174    367-171     Paul H
House      D256-R179  D257-R178   3rd Way & Zach W.
Senate     D55-R43-I2 D55-R43-I2  Zach W. & Dean
WI Assemb  D52-R46-I1 D52-R46-I1  Peter, Tim & Paul H Sam
WI Senate  D18-R15    D19-R14     Paul H, Dean, Sam, Hermann & JIJARWM

So with four of six answers dead-on or very, very close, our winner is Paul H! Paul, email me to let me know where to send your prize! Congrats also are due to our runner up Zach W., who got three out of the six questions right.

CORRECTION: Paul H. comments to say that, in fact, I attributed a guess to him that was actually Sam Sarver's. In which case, we have a tie, with Paul H. and Zach W. each getting three answers right. Then we go to the tie-breaker, which was what time did the AP call the race? As Sam himself points out, the AP called it at 10:10, which was exactly the time Sam had guessed. Paul said 9:48, a difference of 22 minutes, and Zach said 10:44, a difference of 34 minutes. So Paul is still the winner, but on the tie-breaker. Congrats again, Paul. And, Zach, now I owe you a beer at Drinking Liberally.

Federal results from here. State results from jsonline.

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