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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Prediction vs. Reality: How did I do?

In short, I deserve a lollipop. Let's check the scorecard:

Prediction: The Democrats will take the House, picking up 20-23 seats.
Reality: Looks like I was, indeed, low on that number. But still, plus one point for me, for calling the switch.

Prediction: Democrats will not take the Senate, though they will win four or five seats. No Dem incumbents will lose, except Joe Lieberman.
Reality: Lieberman won. And Dems took the Senate (at least based on who's made victory speeches so far). Minus two points (though I feel okay about missing this.)

Prediction: Jim Doyle will be re-elected.
Reality: Jim Doyle won easily. Plus one point.

Prediction: The Falk-Van Hollen race is too close to call, almost. I think Falk will win a squeaker
Reality: Plus one point for the close thing, but minus one for Van Hollen's slim margin of victory. Let's watch today for news of recounts and challenges.

Prediction: Both statewide ballot measures will probably pass.
Reality: Both passed. Two disappointed points.

Prediction: Republicans will keep the state Assembly.
Reality: They did, but lost some key races. Point.

Prediction: Democrats will take the state Senate. Reynolds and Zien definitely lose.
Reality: And how! Point, plus a bonus point for naming names.

Prediction: Herb Kohl will win. By at least 20%.
Reality: Wouldn't you know it. Point!

Prediction: The House races: Paul Ryan, Tammy Baldwin, Ron Kind
Gwen Moore, Jim Sensenbrenner (though with a much smaller margin than in 2004), Tom Petri, Dave Obey, Steve Kagen (by five or six points)
Reality: I didn't beat the spread I set for Kagen, and I was only partially right on Sensenbrenner, depending on how you define "much." So I'll say plus just five points, minus one.

Prediction: David Clarke will be re-elected.
Reality: He was. Point.

Prediction: John Chisholm will win the Milwaukee County DA's race.
Reality: He did. Point.

Prediction: All the various Iraq war bring-'em-home referrenda will pass.
Reality: They did. Just one point--I won't count them all individually.

And the total is . . . seventeen positive points, four negative points, for a net positive of thirteen, or 81%. I am not going to go through everybody else's predictions yet, but I think that's about as well as anyone did. Yay, me!

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