Thoughts on the Gov Race

SurveyUSA, whose methodology is sometimes suspect--it's all robocalls, not real people asking the questions--has been doing monthly approve/disapprove on a state-by-state basis of both Bush and the governors. (See the full 50-state Bush results and governor results.) Here in Wisconsin, Bush is doing poorly, with a 41% approval and 55% disapproval rating. You can see all the results since May on a cute little graph, if you like.

The good news for Jim Doyle--J-Dizzle, if you will--is that he polls better than Bush. Barely. He's clocking in at a 43% approval and 48% disapproval level. This is not good, but not significantly different from where he has been polling for the last several months.

This leads me to two conclusions about J-Dizzle's chances next year. Conclusion one: They are not so good, and the Dizzle needs to show some leadership--not his usual re-active stance--in the next few months or there will be no one left to protect us from the theocratic flurry that will erupt from the Gards and Lasees in Madison.

Conclusion two: Mark Green probably has an even slimmer chance than our hero, señor Dizzle. Why? Well, it will be a very simple thing to tie Mark Green to George W. Bush. Virtually everything that Bush wants, Green tries to give him. I haven't run the numbers (someone will, I'm sure), but I can't recall anytime recently when Green stood up and said that the interests of his district and of Wisconsin conflict with those of the president, followed by a vote against his president and his party. Green can be tied to the Iraq war debacle, what with his being a charter member of the "Victory in Iraq" caucus. Green even had the bad sense to vote for CAFTA, a bill that virtually everyone in the state spoke against.

Note, for example, Bush's 60% disapproval rating among "Independents" and 65% disapproval among self-identified "Moderates" in this poll. Those are the Ed Thompson voters that swung the 2002 race to J-Dizzle in the first place. As long as Bush's numbers stay low--or if they keep dropping further--Green's ties to the national Republican party and to Bush will make him less electable than our milquetoast incumbent.

I do not, unfortunately, have a conclusion about Walker: Tosa Ranger's chances with regard to the info in this poll. It will be much harder to hang Bush around Scott Walker's neck--Walker's place of honor in Bush's Wisconsin 2004 campaign notwithstanding. On the other hand, as I noted last night, Walker is developing a serious habit of digging holes for himself. He may eventually find himself in one he can't get out of in time to beat Doyle.

At any rate, the choice between Walker and Green is one that I am fortunate enough not to have to make. It's bad enough I'll be holding my nose in November . . .