Bryan Kennedy for Congress
No, I'm not just doing this because Bryan's my first Blogads sponsor; I've had this post ready for a while and his ad's appearance just makes for good timing.
F. James Sensenbrenner has represented the northern Milwaukee suburbs and nearby rural areas almost as long as I've been alive. My mother was telling me last night (happy birthday, mom, if you read this, which I don't think you do) that the 17-year cicadas are expected any day now in Cincinnati, and that just served to remind me that I'm old. In other words, Sensenbrenner's had his time.
In fact, Sensenbrenner as often as not anymore seems to be phoning it in, almost literally. He has faced repeated complaints that he's out of touch, a career politician whose interests lie with the big-money donors who support him, and not his constituents.
The good news for Kennedy and the rest of us Democrats is that after the 2000 redistricting, Sensenbrenner's district is probably the only one now less safe than before. When his district was the 9th, his Democratic opponents (when he had one; many years he did not) averaged between 25% and 30% of the vote.
In its first turn as the fifth district, Sensenbrenner faced no Democrat at all, but the Constitution party fielded a basically unknown candidate who managed to earn more than 13% of the vote. And that was with Sensenbrenner barely paying attention the race! Any Democrat faced with a choice between a Republican and a Constitution party candidate may as well go home--the Constitution party is the far-right party considering running Roy "Ten Commandments" Moore for president this year. (All numbers from DC Political Report.)
But the new fifth includes parts of Democrat Tom Barrett's old district: Some of Milwaukee's near-north suburbs are very Dem-friendly. I mean, that 30% Dems used to get even without the Barret voters, plus 10 or 15% from a challenge on Sensenbrenner's right, would make it very close, without even much effort.
I think Bryan can even do better than that.
He's already nailed down many local Republican or non-partisan but moderate-right elected officials and business leaders. At the same time, he's sewing up labor and groups like Milwaukee for Democracy, the former Dean volunteers. If he can keep expanding a hold on the middle, perhaps exploiting Sensenbrenner's "DC-ness," while he holds on to the Democrats who are there and want a change, he can win easily. And if a third-party candidate does run to Sensenbrenner's right again, then it will be a blowout.
Bryan's got a solid, air-tight plan in place to do it, too. According to the numbers Kennedy is planning by, if the district votes for Kennedy exactly as it does for Democratic Senator Herb Kohl, then Kennedy will win. While he's not quite as progressive as Dean was, he's using Dean's game-plan to reach those Kohl voters. Word of mouth, shoe leather, and sweat are what's gonna win it for him, a real grassroots effort.
But Bryan Kennedy can't run a strong grassroots campaign unless he has, well, the grassroots. I know many of my three or four regular readers are local, and if you want to see Sensenbrenner gone, go sign up. If you aren't from around here, but want the Dems to re-take the House of Representatives this year, the this district is our best chance at a pick-up in Wisconsin.
And, not to be crass about it, but giv Bryan sum turkee, as Atrios would say. I get about 50 hits a day now, and if even ten percent of you clicked through and chipped in just $10, that would be a pretty significant thing for Kennedy's campaign.
Just remember--and I offer this to Bryan's campaign if he wants it for a slogan--F. James Sensenbrenner before he F.'s you.
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