Biden out; Clark still undeclared; Edwards has TV; Kerry's planning a kick-off; will anyone notice?

Delaware Senator Joe Biden decided today he would not make it a field of ten. Good for him. He would be haunted by the specter of his 1988 campaign when he was caught plagiarizing. (All my students should count this as a lesson: If you're caught plagiarizing, you can still rise to the level of ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee--but no higher!) Plus, he seems a little dull.

Retired General Wesley Clark still hasn't declared his intentions one way or the other. Some indicators are that it's a go; Political Wire notes a story at the National Journal that indicates Clark is telling his advisers to "crank it up." I haven't seen the evidence of such cranking; I'll get to a possible reason why in a moment.

I've said it before (and been spanked pretty hard for it) and I'll repeat it briefly here: I think it's too late for Clark to enter the race. Even Joe Biden--who would have lost for so many other reasons--cited timing as a factor in his announcement today. He said, "[A]t this late date, everything would have to fall perfectly into place, and I would have to put on hold what influence I have in the United States Senate in pursuit of what is now too much of a long shot." If Clark waits until even later, what changes the calculus for him? If it's too late for Biden, who has run for president before, and, on top of that, has mounted repeated successful state-wide campaigns, and enjoys considerable name-recognition and stature in the eyes of the public, then why is it not too late for Wesley Clark? Is Biden merely covering up the fact that he wouldn't have a shot based on his policy positions, or is he serious, that the horserace has progressed too far for him to have a shot at winning?

One of the things Clark supporters seem to be counting on is that a late entry will mean two things: First, he will have a chance to distinguish himself from the old, tired messages of the other candidates. I don't feel his positions--at least as they are laid out at the various Draft Clark sites--seem distinguishable from standard Democratic positions. (And they rely too much on language like "Clark has implied" for my tastes.)

But more importantly, Clark supporters feel that a late entry will create a tremendous media "splash," that will ensure that Clark's name and ideas get out there to everyone. John Edwards is relying on a late buy of TV time to accomplish the same thing; and John Kerry's waiting until after Labor Day to throw his official kickoff rally. Will it help? I don't know--we'll have new polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire soon to test the success of Edwards's endeavor.

The most uncertain factor in this whole thing, however, is the recall election going on right now in California. I said a few paragraphs up that I had not seen evidence of Clark's "cranking it up." That may very well be because a certain son-of-a-Nazi has entered the circus that is the recall.

I tend to agree with the Scrum--and others have articulated this, too--that the California recall election will be the top political story for the next three months. Period. Unless David Kay really does pull something. Even then, that's an iffy call. But my theory is that Biden's out now because he saw that the recall would totally steal his thunder.

Right now I predict some level of stasis, since no presidential candidate will be getting the kind of press we've been seeing in the past six months. And I believe that stasis will hold for Edwards, Kerry, and Clark.

I could be wrong, of course; but I've got a strong feeling on this one: The Schwarzenegger-Huffington-Simon circus will be all the rage, and the Democrats will get lost in the babble.