Crystal Ballin'

Yesterday at Daily Kos, someone asked in a comments thread for predictions about who would drop out when from the Democratic primary race. Here's what I wrote in response:

Sharpton, Moseley-Braun, Kucinich are the ones we'd all most like to see drop out, but they also all have the least to lose. They will hang on into March.

The first to go, I'm getting more and more certain, will be Graham. He will be the only one to go before Iowa; I would guess early October, when low Q3 fundraising numbers combine with low polling data and poor public reaction to his debate appearances to spell it out clear.

Lieberman will drop out on February third. Period.

If Gephardt loses Iowa, he will drop out, but that's not likely, I know. He will hang on until February 3 if he places third in New Hampshire but tanks on 2/2 (except MO); if he wins Iowa, places third in NH, and does well in a couple of 2/2 states besides MO, look out, since MI is in his reach, too. But a string of third or fourth place finishes after SC and MO would have him dropping out March third.

If Edwards can't finish higher than fourth in Iowa, New Hampshire, and higher than third in South Carolina, he will also drop out after the 2/2 contests. I have a hard time seeing him go all the way, his numbers being what they are, but if he does moderately well in the contests through 2/2, he may hang on a week or two beyond that.

Dean seems likely to take first or second in both IA and NH, so he will want to hang on at least until the 2/2 contests. If Dean has won one or both of IA or NH, momentum will probably carry him well enough in DE, AZ, and NM on 2/2 to carry on until March, especially since he can win both WA and MI. If he isn't winning left and right by 3/2, he'll drop out at that point.

Kerry may drop if he takes third in IA and second in NH. He may take DE on 2/2, and if he wins NH, he may take more on that date. Assuming he does, he has to hope to finish second in WA and MI (which will be hard in MI), and win one of the mid-Feb contests heading into 3/2. Like Dean, if he's not winning well enough by 3/2, he'll drop.

If Clark enters, he needs a calculus like Dean's. But I don't see him starting strong; if he had the luxury of letting momentum build, he could have a shot. Right now, it would be hard for him to do well in NH, and maybe even IA. DE, MO, and probably even NM are out for him on 2/2, as well as WA and MI the next week, and ME and WI later in the month. I wouldn't put VA and TN out of his reach, though, and if he can do a solid second in all the others, he may have a shot. Otherwise, he'll be conceding on Wednesday, March third, with a few others. I won't even bother with Biden.