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Friday, June 06, 2008

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy FTL!

by folkbum
Why would we want to back a loser? We never supported a loser to begin with. We supported the only candidate that can win.
That's buried in the comments, but it's by the original poster--one of the Clinton hold-outs at the formerly respectable blog No Quarter. Larry Johnson, founder, was an invaluable ally during the Plame leak case.

Lately, though, it's Johnson who has been promoting a Republican-sourced rumor about video of Michelle Obama on a 30-minute rant against "whitey." Seriously. Johnson's story has more holes than a Louis Sachar novel, but some Clinton supporters are hanging on to it like crazy. Literally, crazy.

The post itself--leave alone the comments--is absurdly premised, as well. It's about polling (my italics):
Essentially the method is taking into account the median results of the polls a few weeks before an election. Using this method, Gott and Colley were able to pick the correct result in 49 of 50 states in 2004. [. . .] If the general election were held today, Mr. Obama would win 252 electoral votes as the Democratic nominee, while Mrs. Clinton would win 295. In other words, Barack Obama is losing to John McCain, and Hillary Clinton is beating him.
Now, if they could have presented me with some polling from October 2008, I might be convinced. But since they didn't, I stick with the regression model from 538 which shows Obama winning against McCain. If the election were held today.

(Also note: Both Jesse Taylor and John Cole think they know what videos Johnson might be talking about.)

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