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Pay no attention to the people behind the curtain

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

The Most Encouraging Result, Other Ruminations, and the Contest Winner

  • This is the result that has me feeling somewhat optimistic:
    357,182 (or so) people voted in the Democratic primary for Attorney General
    238,606 (or so) people voted in the Republican primary for Attorney General
    That's a 20% Dem advantage in turnout statewide. There are a number of things that could explain this away, and I bet Republicans will try them. The most obvious is perhaps that there were more contested Dem primaries for Congress for example, including the Kohl-Masel race. But I don't think Republicans were seriously worried about Ben beating Herb enough to forgo the chance to vote for Bucher or Van Hollen. There was also the contested Secretary of State race on our side, but that seems only about as likely to drive up Dem turnout as the contested Lt. Governor race on their side, maybe less so. You can't even blame Milwaukee County Republicans crossing over to re-nominate David Clarke for Sheriff; Clarke won by around 3,000, not anywhere near enough to account for either Bucher's embarrassingly lopsided loss or the greater Dem turnout statewide.

    Jef Hall also noticed, and seems more optimistic about "the coming Democratic landslide."

  • On the downside, the results in the 8th CD (congrats to Kagen--I needed at least one endorsee to win) were disappointing, and show how much work it's going to take to win that race. 56,000 Republicans turned out for what no one really thought of as a contest between Gard and McCormick. Only 52,000 people turned out in the highly contested Democratic primary. That's a 4% Republican advantage. While some McCormick voters may well bolt to Kagen, the good Doctor is going to have to capture a significant majority of that elusive non-primary-but-general-election voter.

    On the other hand, only 12,000 people voted for Dottie LeClair in that district in the 2004 Democratic Primary (52,000 for Mark Green), so the contested primaries did significantly increase turnout, especially on our side. Let's hope that energy and momentum continues!

  • My scorecard for predictions was a meagre 7-4. If I'd gone ahead and listed Vinehout and Koehn (two races I was pretty sure of, but just didn't put on paper), my percentage would have been significantly better. And though I called Falk-Lautenschlager right, I did it for the wrong reasons. As it turns out, Dane County came through for Peg, not Falk.

    I haven't taken the time to compare myself to everyone else--and, with a 6:45 AM meeting before school today, I won't--but at least I know I beat Bob Dohnal, who went 0-1. Whew.

  • WI-01 CD voters have once again sent Jeff Thomas to run against Paul Ryan. What's the definition of insanity again?

  • I may well endorse Don Holt for Sheriff. In an election between a Republican and a Republican, I'd rather support the honest one. I also suspect that Holt will pick up many of Bobot's law-enforcement endorsements. And he has to be an improvement over the man who was held in contempt of court for literally hundreds of violations of rules and regulations at the County Jail.

  • The contest winner is D.B.:
    Nowhere is where the formerly respected journalist ended up in Milwaukee in November, after the elections were over. The death of the campaign season spread its pallor over the city where once she had worked, and which she now declaimed was in crisis. Corpses of newspapers that had held her front-page byline fluttered around, given bursts of life in the squalor that only she saw on the shores of Lake Michigan.
    Technically, he was the only entrant, since Diamond Dave's disgusting plagiarism of Bill O'Reilly was disqualified. D.B.'s prize is a free drink from me at tonight's one-year anniversary of Drinking Liberally! And, since I'm not sure who he/ she is, if you show up and claim to be him/ her, you can get that drink for yourself.

    Plus, I think there will be cake. A new contest will be announced later.

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