Tomorrow is Primary Day

I'm sneaking some time on the old computer here to get my predictions and punditry down in pixels before election day rolls aound. There are, by all accounts, only three interesting races in Wisconsin's primaries this year, and I shall weigh in on all three, and a couple of other special ones.

One interesting primary is the Republican battle to be the guy who loses to America's Favorite Senator™, Russ Feingold. There are technically four candidates, but the least objectionable of the bunch, Robert "my brother thinks he's Elvis" Lorge, has basically no money and no support from the lunatic fringe of Republican primary voters. That leaves Russ "used car dealer" Darrow, Tim "I'm a veteran!" Michels, and Bob "statewide loser since 1994!" Welch. In my travels around the state last month, and in driving around Milwaukee and suburbs more recently, I can say that it will come down to Darrow or Michels. I suppose Welch could sneak in if Darrow and Michels split the bulk of the ballots, but Welch just doesn't seem to have any (visible) support. My prediction: Michels 35%, Darrow 33%, Welch 24%, and Lorge 8%.

The Mary "I'm conservative!" Panzer versus Glenn "you're not conservative enough" Grothman battle in the 20th Senate district has also been a good fight. Trouble is, Mary Panzer is going to walk away with it. I predict she gets at least 60% of the vote, if not more. I also want to send some love to Elysse Chay, who is a Dem hoping for enough write-in signatures to get her on the November ballot. If, for some reason, Grothman pulls it off, Elysse will be able to stake out some of the old Panzer terriory and may turn that seat D for the first time in like forever.

The 4th Congressional district primary here in Milwaukee is also tight. An open 4th CD seat is more rare than a Brewer's title, so three prominent local Dems are taking their best (and, in some cases, dirtiest) shots. Tim Carpenter is my guy in this race, but I am not confident enough to make a prediction one way or another. It will all be about turnout: A strong turnout from the South Side and GLBT community can push it to Tim; Attorney Matt Flynn and State Senator Gwen Moore will also be counting on turnout. I think Gwen will be helped by hard-fought primaries in her old Senate district and a couple of central-city Assembley districts, though, and Flynn has a fine field operation. I will predict no more than a mere 12 or 15-point spread between the three, but I can't say who'll come out on top.

The 5th CD race is also of interest to me, because Bryan Kennedy actually has a chance to beat Jim "PATRIOT ACT" Sensenbrenner. Libertarian-leaning Republicans are not happy with how F. Jim has "gone DC" and there will be a libertarian on the November ballot. Kennedy has out-raised any other former Dem opponent to F. Jim, and has landed moderate Republican support in addition to key labor union and other lefty endorsements. I'm predicting Kennedy by at least 10% over challenger Gary Kohlenberg.

As for me, I'm seeing the doctor tomorrow afternoon to go over the MRI of my back. I'm hopeful at least I can get treatment, even if my iBook is still away for repairs.