I'm In!

I am right now sucking some free wireless in the media room at Marquette, where the debate is scheduled to get underway in just a little more than an hour. I still haven't seen Rob Corddry.

By the by, find my commentary live in the comments of the debate open thread at
Daily Kos or read about it in the morning at Open Source Politics.

Gearing up for tonight's debate

I'm off soon to start pretending to be a Real Live Member Of The Press; I'll be attending the Democratic presidential debate here in Milwaukee to cover it for Open Source Politics with live blow-by-blow--and reports from the press room!--over on Daily Kos in the debate open thread once it starts.

But I here are some logistics, in case you're wondering:

Television: The debate airs on MSNBC starting at 6:30 pm Eastern, 3:30 pm Pacific. CSPAN will likely re-air it over the next few days. If you're in Milwaukee, it also airs live in WTMJ, channel 4. If you live elsewhere in Wisconsin and you don't have cable, your local NBC affiliate will probably air the debate at 10:30 pm Central.

Radio: If you live within, say, 100 miles of Milwaukee, you can hear the debate on 620 AM, WTMJ. I know Chicagoland listeners can often pick up that station. As far as I can tell, there is no national radio broadcast.

Internet: There are two audio streams: The debate audio will be available at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's website; WTMJ's website will stream the broadcast audio.

Format: The format is going to suck--that much I can tell you without even setting foot in the place. Candidates will get questions with just one minute to answer, and then 30 seconds for follow-ups or rebuttals. There won't even be opening or closing statements. The moderator is Mike Gousha (pronounced Goo-shay), an anchor for the local NBC affiliate and the only local TV news personality I have any respect for, so he should do well. Also on the panel is Journal Sentinel Washington correspondent Craig Gilbert, whom I've talked to a few times and quite like; MSNBC's Lester Holt; and CNBC's Gloria Borger.

A full accounting of the debate will be up at OSP by morning.

Too Cool for School

Yesterday afternoon I got my official confirmation that your humble folkbum will be among the press corps covering Sunday's presidential debate here in Milwaukee. If you have anything you'd like me to ask, say, or do, leave me a comment. I will be taking a digital camera, so there will be pictures.

I am so hoping to meet Stephen Colbert . . .

Snow Dogs

NTodd is showing off his dog again. Well, here's what a real snow dog looks like:

 
 

Maggie says, "Indeed!"

(The whole series is here; photos by Sarah.)

I picked right
(and not in the Ralph Wiggum sense)

Via T. Rex, I took the "Vote by Issue" quiz that WBUR has set up. You read actual quotes from the candidates on 14 issues, and select the one you most agree with. It's probably the best candidate-selection quiz thingie I've seen so far.

Anyway, unsurprisingly, I align strongly with Howard Dean, and not because I recognized the lines from his stump, either, since these seem mostly culled from printed material or interviews. Here's my full list, though:

Howard Dean

• Health Care
• Trade Policy
• Employment
• Economy
• Education
• Terrorism

Wesley Clark

• Poverty and Homelessness
• Social Security
• Role of U.S. Military

Al Sharpton

• Gun Control
• Family and Marriage
• Security & Civil Liberties

John Edwards

• Iraq -- Rebuilding

Dennis Kucinich

• Energy and Environment

To be really fair, I should go back and choose new responses for the ones that I chose of Clark's. But that would take, you know, more work.

I find it really surprising that I align not at all with John Kerry. I swear I have not altered these results one bit--this is exactly how they came to me--so I'm not cutting out the Kerry. I guess just none of his rhetoric appeals to me, or at least none that WBUR pulled out for this quiz.

If my two or three regular readers want to chip in with their own results, that'd be cool . . .

This is just to say

I have blogged
the news
that was in
the newspaper

and which
you were probably
expecting
to see here

Forgive me
my posts were good
so thoughtful
but over here

Setting the bar low
(No, not that Barlow!)

Today's email from the Meetup team:

As you know, we are now focusing almost all of our efforts over the next 8 days on winning Wisconsin next Tuesday, February 17th. In order for us to turn out the number of supporters we need for Dean to win at the polls, EVERYONE must be a part of the strategy. We’ve learned a great deal from Iowa and New Hampshire, and we have a plan in place that is going to allow our national campaign to reach tens of undecided Wisconsin voters.

And speaking of Crooked Timber and Ted Barlow, I really need to update the blog list on the right. So you can help in two ways:
1. If you read me and want me to link to you, drop me an email or leave me a comment.
2. You can click through all the links, and tell me which ones are no longer being updated for me to pull. I'm just lazy, you know, and, well, a little busy between now and next Tuesday.

Hello, this is John Kerry. And I'm running for president.

At that point, my wife handed me the phone. "It's for you. It's John Kerry," she said.

I had my hopes up for a second that it really was Kerry, as I have a few things I'd like to ask him. But it turns out it was a robocall. That made me re-adjust the order of questions I planned to ask--number one suddenly became "Why are you robocalling, when the Dean campaign has, you know, live humans calling for, you know, conversations with swing voters?" That and why he was interrupting my "7th Heaven."

(I'm still working on my write-up of Dean's visit to Milwaukee Thursday where he sat not ten feet away from me in the call center making live calls of his own.)

Anyway, I listened to his pre-recorded spiel. He was almost selling it. I think he believed it maybe 80%. I know Dean's stump by heart, and all of Dean's big applause lines, after doing this for a year. So I kind of kept score: I counted at least three Dean lines in Kerry's pre-recorded drivel, including the invocation of Truman's promise to provide health care to all Americans. (For the record, I listened to Kerry's stump eight months ago, wherein he never mentioned Truman or emphasized health care. Damned flippity-flopper.)

The funniest part, though, was the way he kept asking me to press 1 if I were a supporter. When I refused, he just kept going on with his sell. And repeating Dean talking points.

Finally, he got to the point where he told me I could press 2 if I were not a supporter. And then he told me I could press 1 if I were a supporter. And then 2. And then 1. And then please I should press a button. It was sad, really, that the man who could potentially be the leader of the free world and have his finger on the trigger of a nuclear arsenal of outsized proportions was begging me to press a button.

Finally, I pressed 1, partly to throw off his internals and partly out of the hope I could talk to a live body. But then, confirming my single biggest fear about John Kerry in this primary season, as soon as I pressed a button: dial tone.

Radio-Related Program Activities

So I got a call earlier today from Anna Panoka at WUWM, the Milwaukee NPR affiliate (yes, I'm a member, and I have the World Cafe CDs to prove it). She apparently had my number from last summer when I really was the only press contact in Milwaukee, and she asked about Howard Dean's recent statements that if he doesn't win Wisconsin, it's over. We talked for a good five or eight minutes, and I went through a lot of what I'd said in my speech (read the post below), and some other things. She asked good questions, mostly trying to get me to say something like "Oh my jeebus the pressure will kill us!"

I figured it would be one small part of a locally-aired piece. Turns out her report--with the one quote she could have taken where I expressed minor doubt (the "Waterloo" line)--is airing in the national top-of-the-hour news this afternoon. And I'm the only person quoted on tape: I didn't realize I would be her only Wisconsin source! (The link is to the most recent news, which may or may not have me in it.)

UPDATE: I just heard the 4:00 EST news, without me in it, but there was the local piece about Dean--with a different quote of mine on the air.

You have to imagine it in Patton's voice

This is the full text of the speech I ended up only giving part of at tonight's Meetup.

First of all, let's keep some things in mind. I've been saying this for a while now, and then the other day I saw it on the blog, so I think they stole it, but here it is: We came into 2004 thinking it would be a sprint. We'd win Iowa and New Hampshire and sweep mini-Tuesday and that would be it. But, as it turns out, this is a marathon. And right now, Howard Dean is in second place in that marathon. Period. Don't listen when they say he's done, don't believe them when they say he's out of money--since he isn't--and ignore them when they say he's just a new Jerry Brown.

Fact is, Kerry right now has barely 10% of the delegates he needs by Boston. Ten percent. There are as many delegates at stake between now and our Wisconsin primary on February 17 as have been awarded to this point. And Howard Dean is in the best position to win more delegates than any other non-Kerry candidates between now and Super Tuesday. Period.

I’ve been doing this now for a year. This would be my twelfth Meetup, except for one month when a death in the family kept me away. And I don’t say that to brag or to lord it over anyone. I say that because I remember a time when supporting Howard Dean looked pretty foolish. And there are some who today say that supporting Howard Dean looks pretty foolish again.

But I am here tonight because Howard Dean has fundamentally changed who I am. And I’ll give you an example.

This morning--this very morning--I woke up as I usually do and I read the news (online, I won’t pay for the paper anymore). And I did something that is now common for me but which a year ago I would never have done. I wrote a letter--an email, actually--to state representative Gary Sherman, from way up north somewhere. I’ve never met him, never been in his district, wouldn’t know him if I saw him. But his was the critical vote yesterday in our state Democrats’ successful blocking of the override attempt on Governor Doyle’s veto of the concealed carry bill. I wrote him, and I said, “Look, I know today you’re gonna hear from a lot of people, and you’re gonna take a lot of crap today, but I just wanted you to know that you have support even down here in Milwaukee.”

Gary Sherman showed some Democratic backbone yesterday. Over the last year, we’ve been seeing that over and over again in Democrats all across the country. And I trace a lot of that backbone back to Howard Dean. Now, I don’t know if Sherman knows the first thing about Howard Dean. But you can see the influence of Dean and us Dean supporters everywhere in Democratic politics today.

In fact, as I have listened to the other presidential candidates over the past six months, what I hear them saying is what I was hearing Howard Dean saying a year ago.

But I’m here tonight because I want the voice, not the echo.

If I want a candidate who says that the war in Iraq was the wrong war at the wrong time executed badly, I want Howard Dean, not some guy who was on CNN last April talking about how well the war was going.

If I want a candidate who says that it’s time to start talking about health care and jobs and education instead of those things that divide us into two Americas, then I want Howard Dean, not some Johnny-come-lately trial lawyer.

If I want a candidate who says it’s time to take America back from the special interests, the I want Howard Dean, not some guy who has taken more special interest money than any other senator in the last fifteen years--Republicans included!

I want the voice, not the echo.

That’s why I’m here tonight. I know that Wisconsin is Howard Dean’s last chance. It’s Normandy. It’s Gettysburg. I don’t want it to be Waterloo.

I also know that I can’t win Wisconsin for Howard Dean by myself. (My wife reminds me of that on a regular basis.) We here in this room can’t win Wisconsin by ourselves, either. But we--and all the people at all three dozen Meetups around the state--are the beginnings of that victory.

Go Wisconsin. Go Dean. Go vote!

Giggle-worthy Grammar Gaffes

This came in an email about tonight's Meetup:

3. Help Dean win delegates in Wisconsin and Virginia by sending handwritten postcards to the undecided voters included in your meetup package

I don't about you other Meetup hosts, but my envelope wasn't that big.

More Milwaukee Mayoral Musings

Another Reason I can't vote for David Clarke:

With Clarke saying, "I think there's a big difference between Tom Barrett and I on taxes," the ad opens with the words "Clarke vs. Barrett" on a dark screen.

Aside from the asininity--of which Barrett is equally guilty--of implying that this is a two-man race (there are eight other candidates besides those two, including my horse in the race, Leon Todd, whose website really, really sucks), this is a glaring example of one of my biggest grammar pet peeves.

The objective case of the first person pronoun is me. The preposition between needs to be followed by the objective case, and when Clarke uses I in that sense, he is using the subjective rather than the objective case.

Now some of you may call this picking nits, and just another case of my going all English Teacher on someone undeservedly. But this is further evidence that Clarke really isn't ready for prime time: He should at least have someone on staff who knows better and can stop this sort of thing before they spend thousands of dollars to air it. But, given that he seems not to have people on staff who can collect signatures properly, that may be too much to ask.

To be fair, Clarke does have the nicest logo of the ten candidates, though.

Send this guy some love

The state Assembly fell one vote short Tuesday of letting Wisconsin residents carry concealed weapons, allowing Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle to survive his stiffest political challenge yet.

In a dramatic 65-34 vote, the Assembly failed to override Doyle's veto of the bill that pitted gun owners against a first-term Democratic governor and many law officers who insisted that arming more citizens would make the state less safe.

Rep. Gary Sherman (D-Port Wing), a National Rifle Association member who voted for the bill just three months ago, cast the deciding vote to sustain the veto.

Dear Rep. Sherman,

I just want to thank you for your courageous stand on the concealed carry vote yesterday. You are probably going to be swamped with letters, calls, and emails today, and I want to make sure that at least some of it is positive. I know you must have faced a difficult decision yesterday, but it was the right one.

I am not a constituent of yours, but I am a Milwaukee Public Schools teacher. I can assure you that everyone here in Milwaukee is on your side, and we teachers will rest easier now knowing that there will not be a sudden proliferation of guns on our streets.

Again, thank you for your vote.

Sincerely,

Folkbum

And now for something completely different

No, it's not electoral politics this time:



create your own visited states map

I'm a lot lamer than Scott. This sure makes me look like a homebody, doesn't it?

UPDATE: I love the Dems in my state. Mr. Heston, stick this in your barrel and eat it. (The link may be dead when the newspaper updates its story. I'll fix it in the morning.)

And check OSP in the morning for my mini-Tuesday analysis.

Rip Van Folkbum

I swear to jeebus it's like I went to sleep last February and woke up a year later.

I want the voice, not the echo.

The February Meetup

Dear Wisconsin Dean supporters,

The February 2004 Meetup is the most important Meetup of this campaign. I'm saying this right at the top so there will be no doubt what I'm asking you to do here.

A year ago, I was just learning who Howard Dean was. I remember a snowy March evening at a little coffee shop here in Milwaukee, with ten other people who were also just starting to learn about him. We had no idea that eleven months later we would be face to face with a make-or-break moment in the campaign, our campaign, with hundreds or thousands of other Milwaukeeans ready to Meetup for Dean.

But that's where we are. And the February 2004 Meetup is the most important Meetup of this campaign.

I teach high school English for a living, but many of you know that I also dabble a bit in punditry. I have learned too much this year about politics, the primary season, and the slings and arrows that outrageous fortune is bringing to bear on Dean's candidacy--on OUR campaign. Wisconsin will be, as it turns out, the most pivotal single primary after New Hampshire. It is here in Wisconsin that we will be able to deliver the final boost to Howard Dean's campaign--our campaign--and carry us over the top.

We can't do that without your help, though. So the February 2004 Meetup is the most important Meetup of this campaign.

Wednesday, February 4, will be less than two weeks until our own primary, February 17. In fact, Wisconsin's primary is the only primary that day: The media spotlight will be on us, and a solid Dean victory here will propel him into Super Tuesday with unstoppable momentum.

This is why I say that the February 2004 Meetup is the most important Meetup of this campaign.

That night in 49 other states, plus the District of Columbia and a dozen foreign countries, Dean supporters will Meetup to write letters to undecided Wisconsin voters on February 4. Your friends, neighbors, and family members--maybe even some of you!--will be getting hand-written notes from Dean supporters across the country and the globe. But it is up to us to get those friends, neighbors, and family members to the polls on February 17. We need to have the strongest get-out-the-vote campaign in the state. We need to remind everyone, especially the news media that will be watching Dean's performance in Wisconsin for any sign of weakness to exploit, that this campaign is our campaign.

If you attend only one Meetup for Howard Dean, make it the February 2004 Meetup. If you attend every Meetup for Howard Dean already, then bring ten new people with you to this one.

We cannot be complacent. We cannot rest on the laurels we have earned so far. The February 2004 Meetup. Is. The. Most. Important. Meetup. Of. This. Campaign.

It is at the February Meetup where we will coordinate our GOTV activities and prepare for the last push of phone-banking and ward walking. It is at the February Meetup where we will take the first final steps towards ensuring a Dean victory on primary day.

And, I have been authorized to tell you, at the February Meetup there will be a special surprise from the campaign that you will not want to miss.

Please, clear your schedules now for February 4. Go to Meetup, register if you need to, and RSVP for the Meetup venue nearest you. There are plenty of Meetup sites in Wisconsin; one of them is close. We need you there. Dean needs us there.

Our campaign is exactly that--ours. And we will not be successful if we do not all contribute. The February 2004 Meetup is the most important Meetup of this campaign, and I will see you there.

What the Dog Ate, Jan. 30



• One mutton on our vintage divided-light windowed front door.

Botox

If John Kerry had just admitted that he had a botox injection, I wouldn't care. Frankly, I'd been thinking that he needed it pretty bad anyway.

He denies it, though.

But his eyebrows. Just. Don't. Move. Did you watch the debate? I saw it. Nothing.

Okay, here's a side-by-side. On the left, from 2000. On the right, from the debate.

 

As Rob Corddry would say, I mean come on!

Some levity

I have not abandoned anything, mind you--not my support of Howard Dean nor my quest to be the "I Feel Lucky" Google result of all the world's wackiest searches. Among them, Jesus's armpits.

This is prompted, of course, by someone's finding me today with did "elizabeth edwards" use her own eggs (I am, sadly, only fourth for that search).

UPDATE: I'm also tempted to add a new daily feature called "What the dog ate," so you can keep up with the different parts of the house that Maggie, um, personalizes. We're down to one and a half windows with any kind of treatment left. Ug.

I'm shaking

I can't literally mainline this politics stuff, but I am actually shaking, jonesing for the results. (It could also be the Chips Ahoy.) If the leaked NH exit poll data were showing Kerry with a solid lead, I wouldn't care. I'd be able to get off my behind and actually do some housework--or even homework. But everything is pointing to the fact that this will be a real tight 1-2 finish. And I'm dying over here.

I've been maintaining for some time that a finish within five or so points--after being down by almost 20 in some polls--will be a moral if not real victory for Howard Dean. Remember, Clinton finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, too. But the numbers--especially the LA Times numbers I hear--put Dean closer than Clinton in 1992.

More importantly, it looks like Clark and Edwards may well stay below 15%, meaning that they would not earn any delegates. So figure that Dean and Kerry get maybe 31% and 37%, repectively. That means Dean would get 8 delegates, Kerry 11. That's durned close, my friends.

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is if Dean wins one of the two congressional districts, which might make those numbers 9 to 10 in favor of Kerry. There is very little in either set of numbers that Kerry can really crow about.

Of course, the exit polling notoriously poor. I mean, after 2000, what's the point? Anyway, the last polls close in less than half an hour, and the real results will start coming in. Until then, the shaking.

UPDATE: After they called it for Kerry, I took a time out and watched "Good Eats" (the cheese one--I love my TiVo!) and talked to my mother-in-law (who called here). I feel a little better, though still sad. My analysis, as always, will be at OSP in the morning.

UPDATE II: The OSP post is here.

(ex) Candidate

Well, my friend Vince Whitacre has withdrawn from the race for the WI 5 CD. Drop by Stacie's blog and let the two of them know how you feel. Even if it's not about the race, man, just let it all out over there.

Vince has endorsed Bryan Kennedy. The other candidate currently in the race is Gary Kohlenberg, who, as it turns out, reads the Daily Kos--I mentioned him in a post there about the race and he emailed me--and has a far snazzier website and a Meetup. At this point, I am officially undecided again, so the link to Vince's site stays in the right column.

On the upside, Vince and Stacie could make a mint selling "vince4congress.com" if this guy ever wants to run for congress.

LOCAL HAPS UPDATE: Well, if your humble folkbum isn't running for Kleczka's seat, there are many who are thinking about it. This includes my state senator, Tim Carpenter. So if my speaking out gets me fired, I could maybe be state senator.

NH #s

I would just like to state that these are preliminary predictions, and that I will post a full and complete prediction of the New Hampshire results sometime Wednesday morning.

Kerry       31%
Dean        27%
Edwards     18%
Clark       14%
Lieberman    7%
Kucinich     2%
Other/ Al    1%

(if you're here for the Dean video, scroll down)
Local Hap'nin's

First of all, Milwaukee electoral politics has gotten even more interesting in the last 48 hours with Congressman Jerry Kleczka deciding not to seek re-election this fall. My wife has basically talked me out of trying for his seat (so we won't be like my friends Vince and Stacie), but if anyone knows how to run a successful congressional campaign on basically no money and without my wife knowing, drop me an email.

But as to the others who may run for the seat: Well, it will remain Democratic. When the state legislature redistricted after the 2000 census, they made all eight of Wisconsin's seats among the safest partisan seats in the nation. My money is on at least one of the unsuccessful mayoral candidates taking a whack at it--David Clarke in particular (as a Republican, I bet), and maybe Tom Barrett (who was a US Rep before giving up his seat in the redistricting) if he doesn't make it.

Also, last week the state Senate failed to override Governor Doyle's veto of the concealed-carry law. The Assembly will get it this week, but our hope was really in the Senate.

The mayor's race is proceeding apace, with Barrett, Clarke, and acting-Mayor Marvin Pratt doing well. The primary is February 17, the day of our presidential primary, and it has me wondering. It's no big secret in this non-partisan race Clarke is a Republican, with big Republican backers both in town and out. What happens when a whole mess of Milwaukee Republicans show up at the voting booths to vote for Clarke, and then decide to take advantage of the open primary to vote in the Democratic presidential primary? Maybe Al Sharpton will take a delegate here in town . . .

Still looking for that Dean video?

This may not be exactly what you want, but I encourage you to go look at the video compilation that Brian Flemming has put together. (Requires Quicktime.)

Howard Dean's Iowa Concession Speech Rant
(I'm the one ranting, not him.)

A lot of people are finding me recently by searching for "Howard Dean Rants." A lot of others are finding this OSP article of mine by searching for "Howard Dean Iowa Concession Speech." People are looking for the speech made to his supporters Monday night that has been widely excerpted and played in the media over the past few days. A number of pundits are certain that his "angry snarling" in the speech--at least the clip they play of it--is the final nail in his coffin.

If you are one of those searchers, I hope you read on. If all you want is to see it, though, click here (in the "Most Watched Video" section; requires Real Player); the clip you have been hearing comes at about 8 minutes, the first minute or so of a ten minute speech--the rest of which you will not hear in the media.

Realize, first of all, that Dean made public concessions in CNN's "Larry King Live," as well as on MSNBC and some other networks. That speech was the "thank you" too his supporters (with nice congrats to Kerry and Edwards that you won't hear in the clips on the radio and TV, not to mention a tribute to Gephardt).

I have seen the speech. And yes, I watched it through Dean-colored glasses, but I watched it. And I loved it.

If you are expecting anger and bile in the speech, you will not find it. The part of the speech you are hearing on the news--the part with the list of states he wants to win, and the now-infamous "Yeeeeeaaaaah!"--is an inspiring, spirited, uplifting rallying cry. He's not angry; he's happy. He's not snarling; he's smiling. You can see it in particular in his eyes.

People once again are mistaking Dean's genuine passion for something else, mostly, I think, because they haven't seen a politician on the national stage recently with genuine anything. And if it isn't "presidential" to be genuine? Well, sorry, but I don't want to live in that country.

It fired me up when I saw it. If all you are hearing is the media spin, then I'm sorry. But watch the whole speech for yourself, judge for yourself. Watch espescially to the end--when Dean actually talks about fighting, and listen to what he's fighting for.

That's why I want to fight with him--I want my country back.

I'm originally from Cincinnati

I say that because, if you were in the greater Cincinnati area for much of the last thirty years or so, your sports teams have pretty much always let you down.

Except for a good run in the 70s for the Reds (plus a WS sweep in 1991(?)), and an occasional above-500 season for the Bengals, life was bleak for a sports fan in the Tri-State.  Sure, Xavier and UC could occasionally be expected to hit the NCAA, but it's the pros, you know, that make or break a town's spirit.

Perhaps this is why I have never liked sports.  Perhaps it's why my dad and I don't have much in common.  Perhaps it's why I rarely use sports anolgies in my writing.  In any case, the past day or so has reminded me of nothing so much as it has the first game of any given season in Cincinnati sports.

The Reds (Bengals, Bearcats, Musketeers, whoever) would lose the first game.  My dad, in disgust, would turn off the TV, get up from the easy chair, and wander off to the kitchen with a resigned, "Season's over for the Reds."  (Or whoever.)

Cincinnatians are kind of inured to being losers.  We have grown to expect it, and to be surprised when we aren't.  But always, without fail, at the first sign of weakness, we walk away certain of defeat.

The lesson, of course, is that one game does not a season make.  One loss does not a losing season guarantee.  This is a season we must not lose, and starting your resignated complacency now is unacceptable.

As for me, I am subdued today but very pleased:  We turned out a record number of Democrats last night.  Period.  Defeatist talk doesn't help the team win any games, people.

Iowa over; it ain't so bad for us Dean supporters

It's like getting the first ding in the bumper of your new car. You know, you were on eggshells before, and extra nervous about anything going wrong.

At some point, though, you accumulate so many dings and scratches that you can fly around the parking lot now with abandon.

Most of my Iowa analysis will be at Open Source Politics in the morning (hey, whaddya know, it's up there now!). The Dean-specific spin, though, I'll mention here.

This is, believe it or not, good for us. Dean was strongest when he was the underdog. When we all believed in him against the odds. This moment will, I hope, return some of the humilty we felt when poll after poll showed Dean an asterisk, an also-ran. But it should also bring back the energy we felt when we knew we had something to prove.

Let's remember the positives. 3,500 people from everywhere showed up to the middle of nowhere for a reason, folks: This campaign. That says something. It obviously doesn't say this thing will be a cakewalk--which is what I was hoping, for a while, it would say--but it's real and meaningful.

And we still have the only truly nation-wide campaign. We now have a sense of what worked and what didn't in the first caucus state, so that we'll be able to put up the best organization and fight in NM, ND, MI, WA, ME, DC, ID, and UT, which we should own.

Think about Kerry and Edwards: Where do they go now? Kerry has got nothing beyond New Hampshire; Edwards is looking at South Carolina and then . . . nothing. Clark is now in a much weaker position, not only because he lacks that caucus experience, but because Kerry and Edwards now threaten him in NH and SC. And I predict Dean will maintain his position at first or second in every state now through Feb. 17, when he wins Wicsonsin with 65% of the vote (that's my own personal mission).

But the biggest hopeful sign about this whole thing is the turnout tonight in Iowa. As it turns out (no pun intended), when I've been saying on occasion that 125,000 is the record turnout from 1988, that's just an overreported error. 1988 featured closer to 95,000 Iowans caucusing. 2000 had only 68,000. Tonight, we saw at least 100,000 people, maybe as many 125,000, and nearly half of them were new caucusers. It's that number that should be putting the fear of Jeebus in KKKarl Rove and the gang. It shows that, despite the squabbling and the fighting and the jostling for the nomination, Democrats will not sit idly by this time around. We will take our country back, whoever heads the ticket.

T minus 12 hours

So I didn't get to go to Iowa. I wanted to, sure, but in the end I have too much crap to deal with here at home. And I need to be well rested this week for a fight of a different nature, and that means getting home in the wee hours of Tuesday morning is not an option.

Anyway, I just wanted to make sure my predictions were out there. For the final count--not the initial count at the door, but once the delegates have been divvied up in the ~2000 Iowa precincts tonight--I predict the following totals:
  Dean      28%
  Gephardt  26%
  Kerry     19%
  Edwards   13%
  Kucinich  1%
  Uncommitted 13%
In the end, Gephardt's organization will keep him in the running, and I'm pretty sure that he and Dean will be the only two to reach the 15% viability threshold in every precinct. That means Edwards, Kerry, and Kucinich (I don't think Sharpton, Lieberman, or Clark will make 15% anywhere) will have precincts where their final count is zero, dropping their overall percentages.

I predict turnout will be about 125,000--nearly double 2000's 68,000 total.

Finally, don't miss my post-Iowa commentary (as part of the "Boston Bound" series at Open Source Politics tomorrow morning.

[Post-game Update: Boy, was I wrong! Mmmmm, them eggs is good, even if they was on my face! I may have hit turnout right, though.]

Thursday Clarke Update

One of these days I'll get back to my usual pathetic rants. Anyway, Bobot will not go to the state elections commission.

That means Sheriff David Clarke will stay on the ballot for the Milwaukee mayoral primary.

So here's the deal: We have a front-runner, or at least a near front-runner, who a month ago boasted that he'd collected 5,000 signatures, well over the minimum (1500) and even beyond the maximum allowable (3000). But when the time came to perform, he could just barely produce.

Even worse, it's becoming increasingly clear that Clarke has no actual support from non-hypothetical Milwaukeeans:

Most of Clarke's signatures were obtained by people who didn't live in the city. [. . .] While it's true that the vast majority of Clarke nomination papers were circulated by people not living in the city, by far the most signatures collected were by Clarke Field Director Kirk Fedewa, who lives in New Berlin and is on the campaign payroll. The second most were collected by Menomonee Falls resident and campaign operative Lisa Sanfilippo. Even key Clarke campaign adviser Michael Whitcomb, who lives in Brookfield, got into circulating nomination papers, collecting 83 signatures the last two days before the deadline.

The big money for Clarke is rumored to come from out-of-state GOP machines. This week, Republican JC Watts was in town in support of Clarke.

I mean, I think everyone should have known something was up when Clarke invited the man who ran the Brewers into the ground to be a financial advisor on his campaign.

If not for the constant pimping by a certain uber-conservative Rushclone talker who shall remain nameless here in town, no one would even be thinking of Clarke as a viable candidate. And now, with an absolutely disastrous debacle here at the front of his campaign, it is clear that Clarke cannot lead. Period.

David Clarke Update, Tuesday Evening

He's in, pending the Bobot challenge. The Milwaukee election people counted a total of 1539, 39 over the minimum, after deciding on 1451 last night but agreeing to take affidavits as to the validity of additional signatures.

Either side can appeal whatever the final decision is to the state elections commission, which then has ten days to rule on the matter. By my count, that could be as late as just three weeks before the February 17 primary.

As I've said, Bobot is not at all my dog in this fight, but, go, Vince, go! If Clarke can't even hold his organization together enough to gather 1500 good signatures in a city of 600,000 people, then he has proven incapable of governing us.

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE: Apparently after I went to bed last night, Bobot's challenge succeeded in only squelching 20 names. The link above is updated to the new article with the correct figures, as the old one was pulled in favor of this one. The Wisconsin Elections Board will likely get the case today. And they drew for ballot order: Clark is eighth of ten. Former police chief Art Jones is last. That sounds about right.

David Clarke Update, Tuesday Morning

Last night Milwaukee election officials finished a review of Clarke's ballot petition signatures (see the entry just below this one for the backstory) and came up with just 1451 valid signatures. Candidates need 1500 to get on the ballot. But the battle is not over; a hearing today will decide if he gets on the ballot or not. As the paper this morning notes,

[A]ttorneys for Clarke will have to persuade the Election Commission to allow dozens of signatures to be added to the tally, arguing that the flaws are technical ones. [. . .] But either side could appeal the determination--sending the issue to the state Elections Board and possibly the courts at a critical period in the suddenly shaken-up contest.

The city folks will make their final call tonight (while I'm busy watching the polls in DC), and I will have an update either late tonight or in the morning. In the meantime, my fingers are crossed that Clarke is out. He'd be bad for the city, for the schools, and for our image--especially now that he's shown he has no idea how the city works and no control over the people who work for him.

The other candidate Clarke

I haven't been writing much about the mayor's race here in Milwaukee, since my massive national audience probably doesn't have much interest in some paltry little provincial contest.

But it's really been quite, um, interesting

Milwaukee is chary with its mayors. John Norquist, who left office at the end of December to head up the Congress for New Urbanism, was elected first way back in 1988. Before that, Henry Maier had been mayor since--get this--1960.

Anyway, Norquist announced a long time ago that he would not be running for re-election, even before he was tapped to lead the CNU. In other words, no incumbent for the first time in 15 years. And nature abhors a vacuum, right? So roughly six billion Milwaukeeans queued up for the non-partisan race, including some heavy hitters like former US Rep. Tom Barrett, beloved state Rep. Pedro Colon (who has sense pulled out and endorsed Barrett), Common Council President Marvin Pratt (who moved into the mayor's office when Norquist left, so he is kind of the incumbent), and Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke. In all, nearly two dozen made some effort, and ten submitted signatures, which were due this past week, to get on the ballot.

Now, the odyssey of this candidate Clarke is similar to the odyssey that other candidate Clark, the presidential Wesley.

David Clarke has not been a very political figure, the same way Wes Clark is debuting in politics in the presidential race. Clarke-with-an-e ran as a Democrat in 2002 for County Sheriff, though lately it's become clear that he is very Republican. In fact, former Rep. J. C. Watts (R-OK) will be in town Tuesday for a big Clarke fundraiser. Clark-without-an-e has generated some controversy for having admitted to voting for Nixon, Reagan, and the first Bush, as well as for not having officially declared himself a Democrat until after declaring as a candidate for the party's nomination.

The eeriest thing, probably, is the way both Clarke and Clark dilly-dallied leading up to the race. Both waited until the field was fairly well set before making their decisions to enter, leading to all kinds of speculation and, to an extent, chaos. Now both have climbed to be the likely second-place candidate at this point (Clarke behind Barrett, and Clark behind Howard Dean).

But now one of the two--Clarke-with-an-e--may find his candidacy cut short. When his team filed signatures this week, they just barely submitted the required number to make the ballot. He needed 1500, and he got 1532. And that's only because a staffer stood in the lobby of City Hall desperately working the cell phone to get circulators in with their papers the day they were due. Problem is, many of the signatures will likely be declared invalid.

Vince Bobot, a former prosecutor and municipal court judge, has challenged Clarke's papers. Now, I carry no water for Bobot--don't like him one bit, really, but I like Clarke less. If Bobot can get Clarke off the ballot, I will be quite pleased.

Personally, I've become quite the fan of Leon Todd. For a while I flirted with Sandy Folaron, but I like Todd's approach much better. When I've heard him speak, he just makes sense. He also has a bit of Howard Dean's spunky outrage at how things could have been left to deteriorate to the state they are in. Even when I disagree with Todd--for example, on the Milwaukee Public Schools teacher residency requirement--he explains his position in such a way that it makes sense why he stands where he stands. And I like that.

But I digress.

By Tuesday--the day of the big J. C. Watts fundraiser--the Milwaukee election folks will make a decision on the Clarke signatures. He's got a razor-thin margin of error: If they find just 33 questionable signatures, he's out. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says that they've found 34 questionable signatures. Bobot, of course, is convinced there are many more than that. There is the outside chance that additional signatures could be counted if circulators are allowed to swear out affidavits. That would lead to all kinds of lawsuits, I tell you what.

I'll post an update Tuesday, for those interested. But this is shaping up to be an interesting thing.

Oh, I'll add one last bit of fun. The date of our mayoral primary (the top two will square off later) is the same date as our presidential primary: February 17, just four weeks away.

Folkbum on Radio, Part Deux

A few weeks back I mentioned in passing how impressed I was with the Kucinich folks' organizing, as I had heard them blow out the competition in a Wisconsin Public Radio straw poll. (That got notice on at least one DK mailing list--that a "Deanie" was impressed with them.)

Well, WPR did another straw poll today, and, as I was able to get home before the end of the program, I was able to call in for Dean this time. (I am a Selective Luddite: sure, I'm writing this on my wireless laptop while watching my TiVo, but I refuse to get a cell phone.)

Anyway, the final results:

Howard Dean 25 (39%)
Wesley Clark 18 (28%)
Dennis Kucinich 17 (27%)
Carol Moseley Braun 3 (7%)
Dick Gephardt 1 (2%)
John Edwards 0 (0%)
John Kerry 0 (0%)
Al Sharpton 0 (0%)
Joe Lieberman -1 (-2%)

Yes, one woman called in and specifically voted against Lieberman. So, even when the "Sharpton Line" is 0, Lieberman can be under it.

An additional shout-out to my friends Mike in Tosa and Tim in Marinette who got on. If anyone else made it, lemme know. I didn't hear the whole hour.

Blogger is Bloggered

I guess it's been happening to a number of people for the better part of a week, according to other Blogger users out there I've read, but it's just started happening to me today: I can't get to any blog*spot or Blogger sites, and instead get re-directed to new.blogger.com. I can't even look at my own blog! If any of you out there are still able to get here (and my hit counter says y'all are trying), good for you. Me, I'm blind.

I can't even get a whole-blog preview while I'm editing in Blogger.

The blog*spot and Blogger people need to get this figured out ASAP. Man, if I was paying for the premium service I'd be really mad. As it is, my indignation is tempered by the fact that I haven't had to pay for anything yet. Sigh.

Folkbum's official 2004 Resolutions

I doth forthwith hereby and duly resolve to

• Eat more vegetables
• Eat less pizza
• Read more books, especially fiction, which has gotten the short-shrift from me lately
• Post here more often
• Post to OSP more often
• Not go postal
• Take a real vacation
• Watch more independent movies (especially those bizarre Australian comedies)
• Buy more CDs and see more live music
• Write at least one good song a month--I've been putting a lot of ideas off for too long
• Deliver Wisconsin for Howard Dean on Feb 17, and the Democrat (whom I hope will be Dean) in November
• Get more sleep
• Herd more sheep
• Eat no Peeps
• Continue to live without a cell phone
• Stop making specific promises about what I will post here and when, and then stop using Blogger's back-dating function to make it look like I really posted it on time

Folkbum's Official 2004 Predictions
the things that turn out wrong are due to the medication

Pop Culture:
The real Michael Jackson will be found working in an auto chassis factory in Michigan, and the cyborg we think of as MJ will be humanely destroyed by prosecutors in what is almost, but technically not, the first televised execution.

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King loses the Best Picture Oscar to Bad Santa.

NBC launches "Law & Order: K-9," featuring the voice of Marv Albert as the talking dog.

Simon from "American Idol" and Vern from "Trading Spaces" are the first ones voted off the island.

In an attempt to top 2003's Brittney-kisses-Madonna stunt, the 2004 MTV Music Video Awards features people who actually like music getting screwed.

Politics
George W. Bush, in a move that surprises evryone, replaces himself at the top of the ticket with an infinite number of monkeys at an infinite number of typewriters. "Hey," he says by way of explanation, "these guys wrote Shakespeare."

Howard Dean wins the 2004 Democratic nomination, but only after he bests everyone else in the Thunderdome.

In California, newly elected governor Arnold Schwartzenegger resigns amid controversy after Maria publishes a tell-all memoir entitled He Groped What?

The anthrax killer, the Plame leaker, and Osama bin Laden are all caught, finally, by the A-Team.

The US Supreme Court faces its toughest case ever, when they agree to hear Spy v. Spy.

World Events
Terrorists strike somewhere, with some casualties.

Ariel Sharon reveals that the wall he's building to separate Israelis and Palestinians is really just his attempt at getting Roger Waters to re-unite with the rest of Pink Floyd for a concert of The Wall. It works initially, but halfway through "Bring the Boys Back Home" David Gilmour whacks Roger in the head with his strat, rendering him unconscious.

China sends up four more manned space missions, including one in September that docks at the International Space Station, where the Chinese pilot beats the US astronaut at weightless ping-pong.

Folkbum's Personal Life
After gaining fame and fortune as the key player in Dean's WI election victory, your humble folkbum is signed to a multi-record deal with, oh, let's say, Philo-Rounder (they do Good Things), and wins Teacher of the Year.

On the down side, Dean overlooks him for the cabinet. Sigh.

Tomorrow: Resolutions.

Sounds of silence

You may or may not have noticed, but MP3.com has shut down. C|Net bought them out, and supposedly C|Net's working on a music download service that will be running sometime in the future. In the meantime, most of my on-line music is now unavailable. However, you can still download "I Hate to Disappoint You" from amazon.com, and a live version of "The War Game" from New Songs for Peace. (While you're at NSfP, check out my friend Jym Mooney's excellent "I Have Come to Take my Boy Home.")

When C|Net gets its service up, I may make more songs available again. Of course, you could always write and offer to buy a CD chock-full of songs that aren't all bad. Ten bucks is the usual price, but you never know how low I might go to get rid of these things.

Folkbum at rest

The flu has struck the folkbum household. Even my knuckles ache.

So, with holidays, recovery, and such, blogging is/ has been/ will be light.

From my outbox

From: folkbum
Date: Mon Dec 22, 2003 10:40:51 PM America/Chicago
To: Jonathan Chait < deanophobe@tnr.com >
Subject: Worst. Idea. Ever.

Mr. Chait:

How can you possibly believe that the best way to ensure that Democrats can beat Bush in November is to spend your time denigrating the man with, it seems from this vantage point, the best shot at being the one to face him?

I wouldn't want you to set aside your principles (if you have any; it's hard to tell) or compromise your integrity (see previous parens), but it seems to me that a more valuable use of your blogging time might be one of the following:

1. Exposing Bush for what he is--a lying bastard with no business in the White House;
2. Promoting the other Democratic contenders instead of tearing down the one you dislike; or
3. Doing pretty much anything else.

Not one vote has yet been cast, of course, so there is no sense in running around asking people to "fall in line." But understand this: Bush is strong (see today's post of yours--you never do say why Bush is successful, leading me to think you may not know!) because he enjoys stronger solidarity among Republican voters than his father, for example. Democrats couldn't hold the coalition in 2000--discounting a popular-vote win--for if the Nader voters had allied with instead of against us, we would have won New Hampshire and Florida, and we'd be talking right now about how to re-elect president Gore.

In other words, you're part of the problem. You sow disunity and dissention when within a few short months we must, absolutely must, present a united front.

Ann Coulter has a word for people like you, which, I expect, she has probably called you many times. In this case, I concur, for your politics of destruction--self-destruction, at that--are nothing short of traitorous.

(NB to my readers: I refuse to link to Chait's Dean-o-phobe blog, though I'm thinking of doing a point-by-point rebuttal of an entry or two of his later this week.)

UPDATE, 12/23: cynic has started the Chait-o-Phobe response site. Check it out.

DefCon: Ernie

(If you don't get the joke, check the right column.)

Tom Ridge came out of his hole yesterday to tell us there would be six more weeks of winter is an increased threat level of terrorism on US soil. Nothing to kill the holiday spirit like a hefty dose of irrational panic, no? And I wonder who's getting duct tape and plastic sheeting in their stockings this Christmas?

The most damaging effect of this elevated terror alert will be further depletion of state and municipal budgets. Even though Homeland Security is slated to reimburse local agencies for additional costs incurred (because the feds have so much money!), short term, cities, couties, and states will be faced with a tab that they cannot pick up. Just think of the holiday overtime, for example.

It's not that I don't think that there may be a threat of terrorism or that I don't want everyone at home and abroad to be safe. It just seems like there has got to be a better way, something that involves not so much panic and "threat levels" here at home, but concerted efforts at cultivating and using allies to help us find and dismantle terrorist networks here and abroad. Attacking Iraq and capturing Saddam Hussein has not made us safer (and that's not just me talking). Treating this like a holy war has not made us safer (remember that Ashcroft, Ridge, and the Whopper only tout busts of terrorists if they are not Christian). Reelecting the Whopper in 2004 will not make us safer.

I want my country back.

Folkbum on Radio

Teachers Speak Out, the grass-rootsy group of Milwaukee Public Schools teachers I am a part of, will be making our public debut this weekend for anyone in Southeastern Wisconsin. A few of us will be appearing on Dave Melnick's show in 620 WTMJ radio from 11 AM to 1 PM. It's a call-in, so if you would like to talk live and in person to your humble Folkbum about the issues surrounding the public schools in Milwaukee, you can. (There is no web-cast available, sorry!)

For the uninitiated, Dave is the voice of the left, or at least of reason, on WTMJ's talk radio (owned by the same company that owns the daily paper and the NBC affiliate in town), relegated to the Sunday 11-3 slot, unless there's a Packers game on. In the meantime, eight or ten hours a day during the station has right-wing Rushclones who hate teachers.

This is probably the last time I will mention TSO and our work here on this blog, since I do want to keep the inherently political stuff separate from the work I want to do for teachers. But you can bookmark the TSO site to keep up with that kind of thing over there.

Old Friends and New Pages

Fellow Milwaukee Dean Supporters--

When ten other people and I gathered at Alterra Coffee the first Wednesday of March to talk about this Howard Dean fellow we'd become enamored of, I had no idea how that we would come this far. I had hopes sure, but I never imagined that, at the moment when the Iowa caucuses are just a month away, you and I and everyone I've met along the way would be a part of a real revolution in American politics. The tea is in the harbor, folks, and I'd like to think we're all responsible for at least a few leaves.

In the intervening months, I took on a number of responsibilities with this group, going so far as to call myself--at the urging of others--the coordinator of our, at the time, rag-tag band of Dean supporters. But it has been a while since I posted to this group at all, and even longer since I've done any real coordinating.

Since August, with the arrival of Mike Tate and Meagan Mahaffey in Milwaukee, not to mention the new school year starting for me (I am a teacher), the Dean campaign has had an official presence in town. In addition, many other great people have taken on tremendous responsibility in coordinating and hosting activities around town.

And, hey, now that Al Gore's on board, you really don't need me at all! :)

But another reason I have been away from the campaign these past few months is that I am attempting to put together a new grass-roots coalition here in Milwaukee. As you know, the Dean campaign has probably done more to revive the grassroots in this country than even a strong dose of Miracle Gro could. I have taken those lessons in grassroots organizing, and, in concert with some other Milwaukee Public Schools teachers, have put together a group that will try to provide a positive voice for public school teachers in Milwaukee. We are in the midst of contract-negotiating time, and, as you know if you've been reading the Journal Sentinel or (shudder) listening to Charlie Sykes, teachers and our union are being demonized, painted as the enemy. Teachers Speak Out, the name of our group, is going to try, grassroots-style, to change that.

So, I have not abandoned Dean. I will be Meeting Up, phone-banking when I can, and GOTVing as much as possible in both February and November. But I may seem a little pre-occupied with my other projects. And I do want to be thank all of you for your help and your, more importantly, your inspiration. If I tried to name you all, I would miss someone, I'm sure. I will see you on the campaign trail--

It's October Already?

I'm not a warblogger, never have been, never wanted to be. But today's capture of Osama bin Laden the anthrax killer Saddam Hussein is really, really big news, even if they didn't save it for the "October Surprise."

My guy Dean's response was out earlier this morning:

Statement by Governor Dean on the Capture of Saddam Hussein

WEST PALM BEACH-- Governor Dean issued the following statement this morning:

"This is a great day for the Iraqi people, the US, and the international community.

"Our troops are to be congratulated on carrying out this mission with the skill and dedication we have come to know of them.

"This development provides an enormous opportunity to set a new course and take the American label off the war. We must do everything possible to bring the UN, NATO, and other members of the international community back into this effort.

"Now that the dictator is captured, we must also accelerate the transition from occupation to full Iraqi sovereignty."

I think Dean's response hits all the right notes:
• Good troops (not administration of the war)
• Good for Iraqis (not Bush's re-election)
• Get US troops out and international forces in now, and end the occupation

And I think we have to face it: The only one who gets a bump in poll numbers now is Bush. Those great polls showing him at under 50% for re-elect? We won't see those again for some time.

I also don't think we're going to see an end to violence in Iraq, since I have a hard time believing we're under attack from Saddam loyalists. I think we're mostly facing Iraqi resistance to the American occupation, and as long as we are there our troops will die needlessly.

Unelectable

As much as I think that electability arguments are a losing game, I would like to point out that we're in the process of gaming the system for a new Google Bomb: We want to make sure that unelectable gets into the works at Google, too.

It's also not a bad idea to try linking Bush inauguration, Bush inaugural, Bush inaugural address, and Bush inauguration speech, to that great Onion article, "Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over.'" (Idea from KarMann/ John.)

New York Times: Folkbum is right

A while back I had a nice long post, "Electoral Math is for Losers" (read it with comments over at dKos), in which I wrote

You may believe that the election will be decided in just a few key battleground states and you may want to bother over which candidate you think has a better shot in those few key battleground states.  But that's not what I want.  I want a candidate who campaigns to win the election, not a candidate who campaigns to win, say, Tennessee.

When we start talking about who looks good in the South, or who looks good in the Midwest, or who looks good in whatever pet state you think will be the deciding one in 2004, we lose sight of the big picture.  We are in this election as Democrats, and we will win as Democrats.  We are not the party of one region or another.  We are not the party of one group or another.  We represent the majority view on every major domestic issue in the country, and it's time to win--and win the whole country.  I don't want to hear about how one guy will win one state.  That's loser talk.  I want to hear about how we will win period in 2004.

Well, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert seems to agree. Among other great points about November 2004, he writes

The Democratic Party's circular firing squad has assembled. Everybody's angry with everybody else. [. . . T]he Democrats need more than a candidate or two. The party needs a plan. It needs a coherent, compelling, convincing narrative that shows how voters and the nation would be better off under Dr. Dean or General Clark or Dick Gephardt--take your pick--than they are now.

To regain control of the White House, the Democrats need to give voters, who are frightened by terrorism and disoriented by the pace of 21st-century events, new reasons to hope. That can only be done by a thoughtful, united, energized and creative party. A party with a plan and a ferocious will to win.

It's nice to be vindicated by the Gray Lady, I guess, but it does make me wonder why this whole thing hasn't sunk in with everybody else yet. It's not a matter of trying to win one state or another, or having the most "electable" guy (sorry, Moseley Braunatics). It's a matter of wanting it, wanting it bad, and working for it. What's so hard about that? What's not to get? Can anybody explain it?

Help me stop the end of the world

Take Ralph Nader's survey. Tell him no, in every way possible. Thank you.

A Must Read

I so seldom just point to other blogs and say "Go read" (except OSP ;) ), but when I do, do I ever steer you wrong? Cowboy Kahlil has one final post at his blog (he's moving to a new host eventually), and it's called 50 reasons to elect Howard Dean. Go read.

Goodbye, Bow Tie

Former Senator Paul Simon, and recent Howard Dean-endorser, died today after his heart surgery yesterday. I always liked him, and I know he was very well respected among the Illinoisites. Condolences to his family and friends.

And I was really looking forward to seeing that bow tie with Howard Dean on the campaign trail this summer.

POTUS Poll

I've said just about all I have to say about the Gore thing at OSP.

So today, instead, I'm pleading for some more of us Dean supporters to freep the POTUS Poll (I'm talking to you, Al!). The poll is run by folks who support Instant Runoff Voting. The Kucinich people have got this thing locked down, it seems, despite what one would think would be Dean's overwhelming netroots.

Email everyone you know. We need to take this puppy back.

(As an aside, I am constantly amazed at Kucinich supporters' organization. As much as people talk about Dean's and Clark's machines being excellent, the DKers are almost LaRouche-like in their tenacity. I heard a Wisconsin Public Radio phone-in straw poll one day recently where Kucinich probably won 2-1 over Dean. That takes discipline and real organization. Too bad it doesn't take many live voters.)

Blogonym

I'm really surpised no one is using this, but I haven't seen it anywhere else and the only Google entry for it comes from an OSP article of mine.

Well, I hereby stake claim to this coinage, and would like the world of neologisms to take note:

BLOGONYM (blog´ • o • nim) n. The pseudonym adopted by one who writes a web log (a web blogger, or blogger) who wishes to remain anonymous. This blogger's blogonym is "folkbum."

Paranoia strikes you deep

Here's one to keep you up at night. John Williams at Open Source Politics asks the very simple question: Do you want your vote to count? The article contains a link to a voting "machine" he programmed that, surprise surprise, may not actually count your vote correctly.

You might think I'm crazy


Which Historical Lunatic Are You?
From the fecund loins of Rum and Monkey.

Via NTodd

Electoral Math is for Losers

Steve Gilliard used to say that all the time, that electoral math is for losers. He got a lot of people all het up about it, too. But the more I see Democrats--good, solid, thoughtful, intelligent, all-on-the-same-side Democrats--carefully crafting arguments around which candidate to support (or not) in the primaries based on "electability" and the vagaries of the Electoral College, the more convinced I am that Gilliard is right: This gets us nowhere and serves to do nothing but sow dissension among us.

I should be clear: I'm not calling all those who fiddle with electoral maps and count the electors on their fingers and toes losers. When I say that electoral math is for losers, I mean that counting electors is, ultimately, a losing strategy. I'll elaborate in a moment.

Am I defensive? I mean, after all, most of the people spelling out electability issues or predicting Electoral College doom are doing so to argue against Howard Dean. I am, it is well known in these parts, a long-time Dean supporter. So, then, is it just a reflex mechanism on my part to say that only a loser would argue against Howard Dean based on electoral math? I don't think so. I firmly believe that a bean-counter approach to 2004 is ultimately the worst strategy we can take (no offense to bean counters in the audience).

First of all, electability is a canard. We are a full year, basically, away from November 2004. George W. Bush is consistently at or below the level of "generic Democrat" in head-to-head polls. Yet most candidates most of the time fall behind Bush in head-to-heads. Sure, there's a state poll here and there showing some candidates up and some down, or a national poll every once in a while with one guy up over the others. But in the end, if we're looking just at the polling data from today, the Democrats all have roughly equal shots if you average the polls, and the Democrats, with an unnamed candidate, have an excellent outlook in general.

But when people talk about Howard Dean's unelectability--or, for that matter, any Democrat's--the polls are secondary. It's all about personality. Dean's too angry. Dean's (perceived as) too liberal. Dean's too gruff. Contrariwise, Clark's too militaristic to attract former Greens; Kerry's too lackluster; Gephardt's too old-school; Edwards is too young. And so on. For the most part, there is nothing objective in these elecability arguments.

What really sticks in my craw, though, is the unspoken but ever-present sense among the Democrats making these electability claims that one candidate or another (usually, again, Howard Dean) will not have the full support of the Democratic Party--or at least some Democratic voters. This is bad voodoo, my friends. Look, I'm hip-deep in the Dean campaign. I have as much invested in this as anyone. And yet, if Dean is not the nominee, I have no intention of just walking away, or of only giving lackluster support to the nominee. Why? Because Democrats must win next November.

I put that in italics so there would be no question where my loyalty lies. I want Bush out of Washington. Period. I don't care if the Democrats nominate a limp rag, I will bust my hump going door-to-door for that scrappy little rag. And face it: With about a bazillion dollars to spend next year, the Bush campaign will be hard for any Democrat to beat without all of us working hard for victory. If all you plan to do is sit on your butt if your guy doesn't win, then I don't want to read your whining about how all of the other guys can't win.

Now about that pesky Electoral College thing. You and I both know that the only thing that guarantees a win in 2004 is 270 or more electoral votes. So why, then, do I think all of this electoral math is for losers? Simple: Did you ever notice how southerners get upset whenever anyone reminds us that we don't need the South to win? You and I both know that there is very little chance that the Democrat will win Mississippi. But if all goes according to plan, our guy will be the president in Mississippi just as he will be the president in Massachusetts. And we cannot campaign nor can we act as though the South is not a part of this country or a part of this race. (Plenty of other states or regions can be substituted in the preceding without changing a thing.)

You may believe that the election will be decided in just a few key battleground states and you may want to bother over which candidate you think has a better shot in those few key battleground states. But that's not what I want. I want a candidate who campaigns to win the election, not a candidate who campaigns to win, say, Tennessee.

When we start talking about who looks good in the South, or who looks good in the Midwest, or who looks good in whatever pet state you think will be the deciding one in 2004, we lose sight of the big picture. We are in this election as Democrats, and we will win as Democrats. We are not the party of one region or another. We are not the party of one group or another. We represent the majority view on every major domestic issue in the country, and it's time to win--and win the whole country. I don't want to hear about how one guy will win one state. That's loser talk. I want to hear about how we will win period in 2004.

So don't show me your electoral math. Don't complain about some candidate's personality and call it electability. Instead tell me how we're gonna win. That's the talk of winners.

Louise the Rabbit
1994(?)-November 24, 2003

'Mid brown castor fur
A little pink tongue darted.
She licked everything.

Rest in peace, little rabbit girl.

UPDATE: Thanks to all leaving condolences, and to NTodd for directing you all here. If you so choose, in memorium you can make a donation to the House Rabbit Society.

The Cake has now been Taken

I got found yesterday on Google with the search string (I shudder to type this) "Aaron Carter armpits" (somehow I was in the top ten).

I think in the last couple weeks I set a pretty high standard, what with that posting once, sometimes twice a day. I should have saved them all up and spread them out; I have some guilt now because the last week has been dry around here.

I'm working on a write-up of my visit with way-cool Wisconsin state superintendent Elizabeth Burmaster last Friday. This past week has also been NCLB testing week, and I'd like to get some thoughts down about how all that went (like you don't know what I'm going to say already!). Tonight I have tickets to a house concert with Cosy Sheridan, so those posts probably won't be until next week.

Fun with free image hosts

Maggie:

Howard Dean:

The interview that led to my appearance in USA Today (I'm the one who doesn't look like Jill Lawrence):

All pictures by Mrs. Folkbum Sarah ("I'm not Mrs. anybody!"), who famously gets forgotten for her photos. There's a story in that for later.

Okay, I'm giving up the themed post titles

It was fun while it lasted, but I'm moving on. Anyway, no big news to report.

Oh, there was an eclipse.

And Howard Dean has rejected matching funds at the request of 85% of the people who voted in his "poll." The most telling bit of news: "During the two-day vote, supporters of the campaign pledged or contributed over $5.3 million with an average contribution or pledge of $116.89." So, going into the vote, word in the street was that Dean had already topped $5m in contributions for the quarter. Add to it this $5.3m, and Dean's at over $10m for the quarter with 60% of the quarter left to go. At this rate, he will raise $25m easy for the quarter. Ouch.

Here's an interesting one on the likely AFSCME endorsement, too. Every week, National Journal runs a "Democratic Insider" poll to find out who "insiders" think will win the nomination (I found it through Political Wire). For the three weeks that they have run this poll, Howard Dean has won it. I noticed this week, among the list of "insiders," this bit: "INSIDERS (candidate affiliation or endorsement, if any): [. . .] Gerald McEntee [. . .]." Gerry McEntee, of course, is the president of AFSCME. I would have loved to have been in the room to hear what McEntee said as an "insider" and why!

"Boston Bound" is done at OSP, with Howard Dean and a bonus edition of predictions.

You can try again, it might work next time

I've mentioned the odd Googling that happens to get people here. Today it was from the German version of Google: "Das Web wurde nach Mousepads mit Winnie Puh durchsucht.  Ergebnisse 1 - 3 von ungefähr 5. Suchdauer: 0.30 Sekunden." I was number two on the list.

I guess Google in Germany is a lot like Google here. It turns out that when you suche das Web with common words, it exludes them: "'mit' ist ein sehr häufiges Wort und wurde in der Suchanfrage ignoriert."

I have to say that Suchanfrage is my new favorite word. (For a long time, my favorite word was fardel, which you can find most famously in Hamlet's "To be or not to be" speech.)

Oh, and OSP has part five of my "Boston Bound" series up, on Dick Gephardt.

And the only friend you can reach isn't a good friend at all

Let me take a moment to thank Joe Lieberman for doing something right in this campaign. Notice that his name is missing from this sentence:

Gephardt, Clark and Kerry are working together once again to try and stop an endorsement.

And how about this whole SEIU plus AFSCME deal? Is that just mind-blowing or what? I was, in fact, going to title this post "Holy Fucking Shit," but then I thought the Dar Williams fans would get confused.

[UPDATE: Alert (and nit-picky :) ) reader Jeremy points out that Wesley Clark is not involved (it is Edwards instead) in the behind-the-scenes politicking to stop the endorsements for Dean. I didn't leave Clark out for nefarious reasons; I just thought the joke was funnier with Lieberman.]

Even after the anger, it all turned silent

Untelevised seems to be missing. Does everyone else see just a blank screen? Where are you, Matt?

And I look out and say, "Yeah, she's really blonde"
bonus headline!

And at OSP, Kenneth Q. takes on the monumental task of refuting Ann Coulter. Godspeed, man.

Tonight I went running through the screen doors of discretion

Howard Dean is taking the populist thing in every direction possible, no? Now, he wants us to decide if he should abandon public financing in the primary:

I am writing to place the most important decision of this campaign in your hands. We need to choose whether we will decline federal matching funds or accept them. [. . .] This decision is no longer mine to make. This is a campaign of the people, by the people and for the people. Your successful effort of raising a historic amount of money through small contributions has made this choice possible. This is why I am putting this decision in your hands. I am asking you to vote on what kind of a campaign we will conduct from this point forward. No matter how well intentioned both our options are – the choice is difficult: do we choose option (a) to fund our campaign ourselves and decline matching funds, or do we choose option (b) and accept federal matching funds and the spending limits?

This announcement came early. It was not due to be made until tomorrow. If you want my honest assessment, I think he did it tonight because he got battered in the "Rock the Vote" forum tonight about the confederate flag. (And he lost some esteem in my eyes because he prefers peecees to Macintosh. Sigh.) But now the headlines in the morning will not be about his being battered in the debate, but rather his decision to turn the decision on public financing over to his supporters. Very shrewd.

I don't necessarily think it wise to forego the public financing in the primary--though Dean does make the point that we Dems are dead in tha water until after Boston--but this was a great media move on somebody's part. Dean owns the news cycle for the next week.

Taking out the compost

Go say congrats to another USA Today alum, Candidate's Wife.

(It was tricky finding an appropriate title for this post that matches my theme. But CW is in garbage janitorial supplies, so it works. Kind of. It's not a judgment on CW or her USA Todayness.)

I think magic's in the learning

Blog of a Math Teacher has a question: Teachers, what would it take for you to change what you do in class? Interesting dicussion to follow, I'm sure.

And don't forget to drop by OSP for my Joe Lieberman Boston Bound post. And don't make fun of the logo; our design team didn't come through and I had to do it myself. :(

The child who played with the moon and stars

Congratulations to Mrs. and Mr. Kos on the birth of Aristotle Alberto. Much cooler than NTodd's cat.

If you're gonna get your heart broke, you'd better do it just right

For the Kucinichistas, Sharptonites, and Moseley Braunatics out there, I have a post up at OSP detailing what may be their only hopes for success in the primaries. It's part one in a six-part "Boston Bound" series.

I'm taking a cue from Atrios with the post titles for a little while. The bonus credit is still available for the first enterprising soul to get it!

I have a good, I have an evil



And bonus points if you spot the allusion in the post title!

As cool as I am

I guess the prize for forgetting to submit my votes for the weekly "Best of Blogs" segment of Open Source Politics is that they vote for one of my pieces as one of the best. This week's BoB is "The Best of Us," a collection of good OSP posts from October. My "Wither College Funding?" post from a few weeks back made the cut.

I also recommend Loren Webster's "Goodbye to the Clean Water Act?", Dru Blood's "Why I Homeschool My Children", Patrick Taylor's "The Deportation of Maher Arar", Kenneth Quinnell's "T. Rex's North American Field Guide to Monsters: The Right-Wing Zombie", Barbara O'Brien's "Life, Death, and Politics", and NTodd's "Around the World in 80 Sentences (Or Half That)". The rest of them are just as good; I just don't have time to list them all here.

Go read. Now.