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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Milwaukee Vote Wackiness

I'm not sure what the heck is going on either:
A day after the City of Milwaukee reported a primary election turnout above 80,000 - more than a quarter of the city's registered voters - a Journal Sentinel analysis found that the number might be inflated by tens of thousands. [. . .]

By the city's calculation, only about half the ballots cast in Tuesday's primary actually included votes in the hottest races - those for sheriff and attorney general. For example, the city reported 78,801 ballots cast in the attorney general race in primaries for the two major parties, but vote totals for the Democratic and Republican candidates combined amounted to only 40,971. By that count, 37,830 ballots did not include a vote in the race - a number that political observers regard as obviously flawed.

In the same manner, the city reported 65,581 ballots cast in the Democratic primary, but only 35,182 votes recorded for the party's sheriff candidates. [. . .]

"We need to understand what is going on here," [State Elections Board Chair Kevin] Kennedy said. "The city needs to do this (review) in a systematic way."

But Kennedy said voters should not conclude that thousands of votes are missing or unaccounted for in Milwaukee. His initial review suggested a computer error involved only total votes, not individual candidate votes.
We need answers, and accurate ones. Did the city over-report turnout, or under-report votes?

I did note in a comment to my results post this morning that the turnout, particularly in the Milwaukee County Sheriff's race, seemed way off from 2002. David Clarke had only about half the votes this year that he did in 2002, and Bobot also could barely get half of what Clarke's 2002 challengers did, combined. I brought this up to dispell the myth of Republican crossover voters pushing Clarke over--more likely, it was low Dem turnout, I said.

But if the city of Milwaukee is under-reporting votes right now, the Sheriff race may not be over. It may be time for a full recount by hand, no?

The Most Encouraging Result, Other Ruminations, and the Contest Winner

  • This is the result that has me feeling somewhat optimistic:
    357,182 (or so) people voted in the Democratic primary for Attorney General
    238,606 (or so) people voted in the Republican primary for Attorney General
    That's a 20% Dem advantage in turnout statewide. There are a number of things that could explain this away, and I bet Republicans will try them. The most obvious is perhaps that there were more contested Dem primaries for Congress for example, including the Kohl-Masel race. But I don't think Republicans were seriously worried about Ben beating Herb enough to forgo the chance to vote for Bucher or Van Hollen. There was also the contested Secretary of State race on our side, but that seems only about as likely to drive up Dem turnout as the contested Lt. Governor race on their side, maybe less so. You can't even blame Milwaukee County Republicans crossing over to re-nominate David Clarke for Sheriff; Clarke won by around 3,000, not anywhere near enough to account for either Bucher's embarrassingly lopsided loss or the greater Dem turnout statewide.

    Jef Hall also noticed, and seems more optimistic about "the coming Democratic landslide."

  • On the downside, the results in the 8th CD (congrats to Kagen--I needed at least one endorsee to win) were disappointing, and show how much work it's going to take to win that race. 56,000 Republicans turned out for what no one really thought of as a contest between Gard and McCormick. Only 52,000 people turned out in the highly contested Democratic primary. That's a 4% Republican advantage. While some McCormick voters may well bolt to Kagen, the good Doctor is going to have to capture a significant majority of that elusive non-primary-but-general-election voter.

    On the other hand, only 12,000 people voted for Dottie LeClair in that district in the 2004 Democratic Primary (52,000 for Mark Green), so the contested primaries did significantly increase turnout, especially on our side. Let's hope that energy and momentum continues!

  • My scorecard for predictions was a meagre 7-4. If I'd gone ahead and listed Vinehout and Koehn (two races I was pretty sure of, but just didn't put on paper), my percentage would have been significantly better. And though I called Falk-Lautenschlager right, I did it for the wrong reasons. As it turns out, Dane County came through for Peg, not Falk.

    I haven't taken the time to compare myself to everyone else--and, with a 6:45 AM meeting before school today, I won't--but at least I know I beat Bob Dohnal, who went 0-1. Whew.

  • WI-01 CD voters have once again sent Jeff Thomas to run against Paul Ryan. What's the definition of insanity again?

  • I may well endorse Don Holt for Sheriff. In an election between a Republican and a Republican, I'd rather support the honest one. I also suspect that Holt will pick up many of Bobot's law-enforcement endorsements. And he has to be an improvement over the man who was held in contempt of court for literally hundreds of violations of rules and regulations at the County Jail.

  • The contest winner is D.B.:
    Nowhere is where the formerly respected journalist ended up in Milwaukee in November, after the elections were over. The death of the campaign season spread its pallor over the city where once she had worked, and which she now declaimed was in crisis. Corpses of newspapers that had held her front-page byline fluttered around, given bursts of life in the squalor that only she saw on the shores of Lake Michigan.
    Technically, he was the only entrant, since Diamond Dave's disgusting plagiarism of Bill O'Reilly was disqualified. D.B.'s prize is a free drink from me at tonight's one-year anniversary of Drinking Liberally! And, since I'm not sure who he/ she is, if you show up and claim to be him/ her, you can get that drink for yourself.

    Plus, I think there will be cake. A new contest will be announced later.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Vote Today!

But only vote once. And don't slash anybody's tires. Or jam anybody's phones. Or set up intimidating road blocks in areas of your opponent's strength. Or make your opponent's voters stand in the rain because you delivered too few voting machines to the precincts where they're likely to do well. Or circulate flyers telling your opponent's likely supporters that they can't vote or, if they can, that they vote tomorrow.

This post will stay at the top at least until polls close at 8:00 tonight (Democrats) and 4:00 this afternoon (Republicans) (kidding!). Milwaukeeans, find your polling place here. Scroll down from here to check for new content.

I Voted

I'm off in a few minutes to a school board meeting. But you can keep up-to-date with statewide election haps at the WisPolitics election blog.

And there's still time to enter the contest!

McIlheran Watch: Once Bitten . . . Okay, Bite Me Again! A Voter ID Fairy Tale

Throughout the day yesterday, I occasionally considered whether I wasn't too hard on the Mac in my long screed Sunday. Nah.

In fact, I must not have been hard enough. I said this:
I'm not even going to touch his op-ed from [Sunday], which is based on research from noted liar, dissembler, fraud, chicken, and sock-puppeteer John Lott, who should never ever be given credence on any matter again after the crap he's pulled. That alone ought to be enough to get McIlheran's "Junior Wurlitzer League" card revoked.
Lott's book, More Guns Less Crime, posits the notion that when more people have guns, fewer people commit crimes. Lott's work is trumpeted by the pro-gun crowd, and, during the weekly (it seems) debates about concealed-carry in the Wisconsin legislature, the pro-carry folks trot out his now-rebutted stats as if they were gospel. Xoff took the shots I wouldn't--that's worth the read. Blogging yesterday, Mac defended himself (if you get an error, click here and look for "Mr. Open-Minded plugs his ears harder") against Xoff's charges by pleading ignorance. I'll come back to that post in a minute.

Lott's new thesis, and the subject of McIlheran's Sunday column, is that stricter voting rules--like a required photo ID--will increase voter turnout. (The counterpoint to McIlheran's "point" was this good column by Greg Stanford.) McIlheran wrote:
John R. Lott Jr. [. . .] published a paper last month looking for effects from voter-ID requirements.

He didn't find much evidence about mandatory picture IDs, since such rules are new and rare in this country. But he did find signs that other tough anti-fraud rules, similarly criticized, didn't hurt turnout among minorities, the poor and the elderly. And while ID rules didn't affect turnout much overall, he says, they appeared to increase it in what the bipartisan American Center for Voting Rights identified as fraud hot spots. [. . .]

What underlies the numbers, says Lott, is that while ID rules may both suppress legitimate voters or comb out fakes, a third thing may be happening: Voters gain added confidence that their votes won't be negated by fraud. More people vote if they know the vote is fair and accurate, and this effect would be highest in places with the worst reputations. He says the numbers show that's what's happening.

And there is evidence about mandatory photo IDs as well, he says: Mexico has required them since 1991. Turnout has risen since. In fact, Mexico is a harsh test. To vote, Mexicans must show a voter registration card, with photo, thumbprint and a magnetic strip with biometric data. It's got anti-counterfeiting measures, too, and you sign up by showing up at a registration office. They don't mail the card: You have to go pick it up later. Despite all this in a country with Third World stretches, Mexico's Federal Election Institute says 94.5% of eligible voters are registered. [. . .] The turnout, at about 60%, was uninjured. Voter registration was the part of the election that worked.
So let's get this straight: Mexico's 60% turnout shows what a rousing success voter ID and strict registration requirements can mean. Wisconsin's turnout, despite not requiring strict registration or photo ID in 2004, was more than 25% higher than Mexico's, so . . . what, exactly? In fact, as I've detailed here before, the states with the strictest ID requirements consistently have lower turnout than other states. Period.

And Lott's contention that "the numbers show that's happening"-- that the turnout increases in the worst places with new strict rules--I don't buy it. Compare these 2000 election numbers to the 2004 numbers linked above. Florida--a "hot spot" if there ever was one--saw an increase of 9%. I don't know what might have changed--if anything--in those four years to give voters an added sense of confidence that turnout jumped like that. I do know what changed in Wisconsin in those four years: nothing. And our turnout? Also up 9%!

Blogging, Mac says "I’m no statistician, so I can’t say whether this is the final word. But I think the idea’s worth looking at." I'm no statistician, either, but with what I can Google up--and Lott's history (if someone tells you Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny both exist, how much will you trust them when they start talking Tooth Fairy?)--I know this idea is crap. How the Journal Sentinel can keep paying this guy is beyond me.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Primary Predictions

Here it is 24 hours before the big show and I haven't made any guesses about winners and losers yet. Since all the other cool kids are doing it, I'd better get this out there now. Big races first:
  • US Senate, Democrat: Herb Kohl. I'm going out on a limb here that Herb will beat Ben Masel (whom I endorsed).

  • Attorney General, Democrat: I have endorsed the incumbent, Peg Lautenschlager, because, while I don't see significant differences in policy between her and opponent Kathleen Falk, I know Peg will do a good job as AG because she has done a good job as AG. Paul Soglin is less sanguine about Falk. But my prediction is predicated neither on my endorsment nor Paul's arguments: Falk has Madison voters squared away, and, even if she barely splits Milwaukee's votes, the Dane vote will be enough for her to win. I think Falk takes it with a few points to spare.

  • Attorney General, Republican: Southeast Wisconsin is supposed to be Paul Bucher's stronghold. Yet even when I drive through Waukesha County, the JB Van Hollen signs outnumber Bucher signs six or seven to one. I know yard signs don't vote, but neither do people unenthusiastic about your campaign. Van Hollen takes it.

  • Secretary of State, Democrat: This is a hard one to call. Scot Ross (endorsement) has been actively courting the activist community, the kind of people who could swing an election. On the other hand, LaFollette has the power of incumbency in a race for an office that few people really care about. Still, I can't help but think Ross will pull this out in a squeaker. I could be wrong--this is the race I'm least certain about--but that's what the Magic Eight Ball is telling me.

  • WI-08, Democrat: Steven Kagen (my endorsement) will win this one. As I noted when I endorsed him, there is meaning to the fact that only he has been releasing internal polls. If another Democrat had good numbers, we'd have seen them by now. There are rumblings of scandal--the Republicans have accused Kagen's campaign guru Eric Hogensen of campaigning on state time (it was after work hours) and they're also displeased that Kagen, sole proprietor of his own chain of allergy clinics, has language on his business website that mirrors the language in the campaign website. By furiously huffing and puffing, the Republicans have created smoke, but there's no fire there.

  • WI-08, Republican: Bob Dohnal (who has let his widigest.com domain name lapse!) and I may agree on only one thing: People don't like John Gard. However, it's long been established that primary voters are not people, and therefore, John Gard will win in a walk.

  • WI-01, Democrat: Republican Paul Ryan has more money than god. But I think Steve Herr has run a good campaign and will be the one tasked with keeping all of that money tied up in the district, and not, for example, supporting Gard.

  • Milwaukee County Sheriff, Democrat: There's all kinds of voodoo out there in blogoland about how Republicans in Milwaukee County will vote on the Dem ballot just to re-elect David Clarke, forgoing the opportunity to vote for Bucher or Van Hollen for AG. But I don't think most voters are playing with that kind of calculus in their heads and, indeed, will stick to the R ballot. That leaves Vince Bobot (endorsement) an easy winner.

  • Milwaukee County District Attorney, Democrat: In the small-worlds department, I discovered that Larraine McNamara-McGraw's husband is a colleague of mine, so I've been getting a different perspective on the race than that which is portrayed in the media. However, I do not think she'll overcome the party machinery and media drubbings, and John Chisholm will win the primary.

  • AD-16, Democrat: I never got around to endorsing Leon Young over his pro-voucher challenger, but Leon should take this one.

  • AD-23, Democrat: As I said when I endorsed him, Bill Elliott has the ground game to win this primary.
There are other races out there that are too Republican or too far away for me to have a good sense of how they will turn out. But these eleven I feel I know enough about to at least guess. Tell me where I'm wrong in the comments.

McIlheran Watch: And a whiner, too

(The dog woke me up early, so I'm extra grumpy.)

A late-night post at Patrick McIlheran's blog (click the second link and look for "That's five family dining experiences at McDonald's" if the first gives you an error) complains about the cost of admission to the new Discovery World museum:
[I]t all sounds neat, and my kids are clamoring to go. When we will is unclear: At $16.95 for adults and $12.95 for children ages 3 to 17, it is expensive. In the case of my family, for instance, that's $73 a visit. It appears we could manage with a family membership for $65, but whether that includes parking isn't clear (otherwise, that's another $7 or so). And it would be on top of the $85 a year for the zoo membership and the $60 we'd pay for Milwaukee Public Museum membership if a dear friend didn't give that to us as a Christmas present.
And from there he comparison shops to the cost of other museums around the country, less airfare or gas money. His point: Discovery World is too expensive.

Does he note how the cost of admission or membership might be difficult for the average Milwaukee family--children of whom, I presume, are less likely to encounter science at home than McIlheran's kids? Does he lament how the cost of admission even for large school field trips could be a burden on children or cash-strapped public schools?

No; he complains about how much it costs him.

(To be fair, I haven't noted the prohibitive admission cost for Milwaukee's poorest families and schools yet myself, but neither have I whined how much it'll set me back when my family goes.)

Sunday, September 10, 2006

McIlheran Watch: Patrick McIlheran is a liar and a smarmy fraud

There are times when I treat the Mac with humor or condescension. Not today. I'm feeling pessimistic this weekend, in large part because of the divisiveness apparent in this country's approach to the anniversary of 9/11. Republicans are politicizing it; ABC is lying about what happened; and George W. Bush is trying to make us think that our continuing presence in Iraq is the moral and military equivalent of World War II. Democrats just want some peace.

That's why I have no patience for McIlheran this week: He is a liar and a smarmy fraud.

I'm not even going to touch his op-ed from today, which is based on research from noted liar, dissembler, fraud, chicken, and sock-puppeteer John Lott, who should never ever be given credence on any matter again after the crap he's pulled. That alone ought to be enough to get McIlheran's "Junior Wurlitzer League" card revoked.

No, I'm talking about McIlheran's blogging from this weekend. This will be long, but, sorry, I have a blog and I must vent.

You can read McIlheran's blog here, and I'll link to the specific posts when I talk about them. But right now the links to the individual posts are turning up runtime errors from the Journal Sentinel's servers. (One can hope that maybe it's the engineers working on adding comments to the Journal Corp blogging software!) If the permalinks aren't working, just click the link above and read down to the appropriate dates.

See if you can see what is is about this entry from Saturday that raised my ire:
But Italy never attacked us at Pearl Harbor
I cheated; I only gave you the headline, which was it. Kind of gave it away. He's trying to make an equivalence between anti-Iraq war activists, who rightly say that Iraq didn't attack us on September 11, and World War II. The duh answer to that is twofold: One, Italy's ally attacked us at Pearl Harbor. Two, Italy declared war on the United Stated on December 11, 1941, just four days after the Pearl Harbor attack.

I guess the United States was just supposed to sit around while a world military power currently beating up on our own allies declared war on us? When the US was attacked in 1941, we responded miliatrily against those who attacked us, and against their allies who declared war on us. When the US was attacked in 2001, we responded militarily against those who attacked us and their allies in Afghanistan.

Sadly, since 2001, we have let those who attacked us escape and allowed their allies to make a resurgence. In 1941--and in pressing that fight in the years following--the US and our allies fully defeated not only Japan but their allies in Europe. At no point did we find ourselves distracted by a second, unrelated and unnecessary fight.

But back to Mac. He derides a Senate Intelligence Committee report from this past week which makes it clear that Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda were not in cahoots. He does this by citing conservative commentators who lack access to the classified information and by attacking ad hominem one of the staffers involved in writing the report. (He does not deride President Bush for making the same claim in a press conference two weeks ago.) But then he says,
Iraq was unconnected to 9-11 only if you view 9-11 as a matter of al-Qaida vs. the U.S.
Oh, well that explains it! Maybe we weren't al Qaeda's target five years ago--maybe the hijackers overshot Mexico and hit New York and Washington, DC, on accident. Or maybe they weren't al Qaeda after all, but renegade Cubans. Let's see how McIlheran explains this away:
The point President Bush had been making from the beginning was that al-Qaida, while bad, was part of something larger, something he's finally gotten around to calling Islamic fascism--the anti-Western impulse that is similarly behind a swath of violence since the 1970s.

And while rounding up al-Qaida was imperative, their places would be taken by other bomb-wearers unless the rotted political culture that spawned them were fixed. Bush was citing the spread of democracy as a reason to topple Saddam before the war began, while in 2001 he was warning that anyone not cooperating with us after 9-11 was in for it. By either measure, Iraq, with its unparalled culture of oppression and its known sheltering of jihadists of a variety of stripes, fits the indictment.

When the left complains, then, that Iraq didn't cause 9-11, ask: Where would have have [sic] taken the war on the jihadists?
This is staggeringly wrong. Just . . . staggeringly wrong. Go back and re-read those three paragraphs again, slowly, and just soak in their wrongness. This sentence, for example, blows me away:
And while rounding up al-Qaida was imperative, their places would be taken by other bomb-wearers unless the rotted political culture that spawned them were fixed.
I think we can all agree that the sentiment behind this sentence is not wrong. Clearly, there is a political, social, and economic confluence that allowed some parts of the middle east to produce anti-Western jihadists who attacked us and our interests throughout the nineties and on September 11, 2001.

None of those jihadis were from Iraq, and to use this logic as justification for our entry or perhaps even our continued presence in Iraq is misdirection and lying on a grand scale. I don't know how someone can do that and face himself in the mirror every day.

I'm not sure what he means in his last sentence--"Where would have have taken the war on the jihadists?"--but I can only assume he wants to know where Democrats would have taken the war on jihadists. I doubt they would have taken that war to Iraq. Consider:
  • While we know Hussein was supporting Palestinian suicide bombers, we also know that he was not the only one; at least two US allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, were allowing charities based in those coutries to pay terrorists. Beyond that, the Palestinian terrorists are a different flavor of terrorist than the jihadis typified by al Qaeda. Rather than exercising general anti-Western sentiment--the Palestinians were out to win concessions from Israel, a country they saw as occupying land rightfully theirs. And as we have seen, removing Saddam from power has not slowed down the onslaught of Palestinian suicide bombers. Strike one.
  • It is true that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was in Iraq; he was in a part of Iraq not under Saddam's direct control and Saddam, in fact, tried to have him captured or killed (a fact Dick Cheney seems to be unaware of, calling Zarqawi this morning "the link" between Iraq and al Qaeda). It is also true that the US had the chance to get Zarqawi in 2002 and chose not to, expressly because it "could undercut [the US] case for war against Saddam." There were plenty of nations and world leaders who harbored and supported al Qaeda more readily and more thoroughly than Iraq and Hussein--many of them our allies, like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. al Qaeda operated throughout West Africa, as well. The one place al Qaeda was not welcome was in the secular dictatorship of Iraq. Strike two.
  • In addition to not breeding jihadis who were a threat to the US, Hussein's Iraq was simply not a threat to us as a nation, either. We can debate whether Bush lied, or whether evidence was deliberately suppressed showing that intelligence pointing to an active and threatening WMD program was weak and likely wrong. Either way, it was clear by the time the first bombs fell in March 2003 that there was no WMD program, no large stockpiles of dangerous WMD, and no chance that Saddam would have a nuclear weapon before his mustache turned gray and fell into his bowl of humus. There were plenty of places that had active WMD programs--North Korea and Iran, for example--and places where there was (and remains) a real danger of WMD falling into terrorists' hands (like former Soviet republics). Strike three.
Democrats, Mr. Mac, would have put all of that together and recognized that, wherever the best place to take the war on jihadists might have been, Iraq was not it.

The deception and contortion necessary to believe that Iraq was the logical next step in the war on terror--as changed by the events five years ago tomorrow--are enormous, and any columnst of any stature should be embarrassed to engage in them willingly. McIlheran is an apologist for a presidency that has not made us safer and has not made the world safer. Indeed, McIlheran is a willing dupe, condescendingly wagging his finger at us know-nothings while whitewashing what is an agenda that, for anyone paying attention, is not related to terror at all.

Glenn Greenwald brought this home last week when considering the lies perpetrated by ABC's "Path to 9/11" docu-drama, which lays almost all of the blame for 9/11 at the feet of Bill Clinton. Don't you think, Glenn asks, if the Republicans really believed that Clinton-Gore blew it on terror, that would have been a central part of Bush's 2000 campaign? Makes sense. But it is not so:
Prominent Republican elected officials were not criticizing Clinton for paying insufficient attention to Al Qaeda. George Bush barely said a word about Islamic terrorism during the entire presidential campaign--throughout 1999 and then through all of 2000--and to the extent Republicans spoke about Clinton's anti-terrorism efforts at all, it was to criticize them for being too bellicose, too militaristic, and just unnecessary.

The 2000 Republican Party Platform contains 13 specific criticisms of the Clinton Administration's foreign and military policies. Not a single one mentions or refers in any way to Al Qaeda or terrorism generally. [. . .] Even the section of the Platform entitled "Terrorism, International Crime, and Cyber Threats" makes not one reference to Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, or Islamic extremism. It does not contain a single claim that the Clinton administration was insufficiently aggressive towards Islamic terrorists, nor does it advocate increased militarism in the Middle East or against terrorists. In fact, to the extent Republicans advocated a new approach at all, it was to emphasize the need for the very "law enforcement" and "domestic preparedness" approaches which they now claim to disdain.

George Bush's 2000 Republican National Convention acceptance speech contained a slew of specific criticisms of the Clinton administration, along with a series of specific foreign policy goals. He never mentioned or even alluded to the threat of terrorism, Islamic extremism, or the need for increased aggression against Middle Eastern supporters of terrorism. In fact, to the extent Bush criticized the use of military force at all, it was to imply that it was not used sparingly or discriminatingly enough. [. . .] Then-Governor Bush also engaged in three lengthy presidential debates with Al Gore and never once criticized the Clinton administration's handling of terrorism. He never once advocated increased aggression or urged that more attention be paid to that threat. Again, to the extent he criticized the Clinton administration's foreign policy, it was to criticize the excessive use of military force.
"Well, 9/11 changed everything," you may be thinking in response. Well, no, it didn't change enough. More from Greenwald, with my emphasis:
After that, there is an entire section entitled "The Middle East and Persian Gulf" that deals extensively with Iraq and the alleged threat posed by Saddam Hussein, but it does not say a word--not a single word--about Islamic extremism, Al Qaeda, or Osama bin Laden. [. . .]

In the second presidential debate, Bush was specifically asked what differences there would be between his foreign policy and the Clinton administration's policy towards the Middle East:
MODERATOR: People watching here tonight are very interested in Middle East policy, and they are so interested they want to base their vote on differences between the two of you as president how you would handle Middle East policy. Is there any difference?

GORE: I haven't heard a big difference in the last few exchanges.

BUSH: That's hard to tell. I think that, you know, I would hope to be able to convince people I could handle the Iraqi situation better. . . .
In 2000, the Republicans and candidate Bush were concerned about one thing: Iraq. Barbara O'Brien writes today about how Iraq was in the cards within the first days after 9/11. And, of course, there was Bob Woodward's book. McIlheran, by continuing to make excuses for the president and the war in Iraq that clearly he wanted before he was elected, is doing a tremendous disservice to his readers, and he makes himself look like nothing more than a patsy. "Where would you have attacked," he mockingly wonders, and then, probably, pats himself on the back for showing us libs what's what. In reality, Mr. Mac, you're the one getting played. You're the one looking foolish.

And that smarmy question--"Where would have have taken the war on the jihadists?"--is just the second biggest crock in the post, though important. It buys completely into the presupposition that the best way to fight stateless jihadi terrorists is to invade a state. I am not the Democrats' premiere foreign policy expert, but even I can see that the way to stop terror cells in Madrid or London or Bali or even Saudi Arabi and the Sudan is not to invade Iraq.

The biggest crock in the post is, of course, that the current conflict is the equivalent of World War II. It is not, for several reasons. As noted, we are not fighting states. We cannot go off and invade and take and hold territory belonging to a military power the way we did in the Pacific, Europe, and Africa. Calling al Qaeda and its ilk fascists no more makes them fascists than my calling a banana an orange makes that banana into an orange. When you start calling what we fight to day fascism, you lose a perfectly good word to describe actual fascists--people like Italy's Moussolini. When Roosevelt took us to war, he asked Americans to sacrifice and set a somber and severe tone for the fighting that assuredly would take many thousands of American lives. When taking us to war against terror, Bush asked us to keep shopping, morphed Democratic US Senator Max Cleland into bin Laden in a campaign commercial to win in 2002, used images flag-draped coffins at Ground Zero to win in 2004, will use 9/11 families to promote torture to win in 2006, and gets completely flustered and petulant when asked what winning this war might mean. If you want us to believe we're fighting WWIII, then give us something more than dirty tricks and directions to the mall. Give us something more than unrelated invasions and belligerent demands to "stay the course."

I know I have ranted through too many screens already, but consider my verbiage to be a correlate to how infuriating McIlheran is to me. In today's post (a reminder that the link may not work), McIlheran goes off on Juan Cole:
[Cole, in today's paper] mainly is saying that al-Qaida's kind of winning, it's provoked by our policies, and the war is all really a plot by Bush to hold on to the prerogatives of being a war president. This must all somehow seem self-evident to people who have plugged their heads into the MoveOn Matrix.

But consider: As another Crossroads piece, this one by William Dobson, points out, from 9-11 through 2005, 18,944 people around the world died via terrorism. Eight of them were on American soil. Not that fate needs tempting, but the fact that Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the 9-11 mastermind, Ramzi Yousef, who planned the '93 World Trade Center hit, and dozens of other al-Qaida leaders are in the slam or dead suggests that the failure of al-Qaida to kill a few thousand more Americans is no mere coincidence.

Beyond that, Cole contends that far from being a clash of civilizations, the jihadist assault on us (though he never manages to say "jihadist," tellingly) is really the reaction to what we've done--supported Israel, sent soldiers to the Middle East.
This belies a number of widely available facts: first, bin Laden himself made it clear at the start that his campaign against, in particular, the United States, was predicated on a US presence in Saudi Arabia (notice that Bush "cut and ran" from Saudi Arabia as soon as he had bases in Iraq). In addition, it's clear that there is "growing evidence [in the intelligence community] that al Qaeda might not have been trying to attack the United States in the three years since its singular triumph of 9/11." In other words, al Qaeda hasn't hit us not because of Bush's almighty wall of fire around us, but rather because they have been biding their time. It took eight years between al Qaeda attacks on US soil, not because we stopped one every other week, but because there is a method to their madness.

To top it off, there is no question that the frequency and intensity of terror activity--particularly attacks planned, whether executed or not, by al Qaeda--has skyrocketed around the world since 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq. Every day, it seems, we learn of some plot somewhere that belies the notion that we are fighting them in Iraq so we don't have to fight them somewhere else.

So, again, Patrick McIlheran is spinning and fronting for this administration, peddling half-truths and outright fraud to, smiling, repeat the Bush line on Iraq. The amount of dishonesty in just one weekend's worth of blog posts is staggeringly offensive.

McIlheran takes the opportunity of the fifth anniversary of the most deadly attack ever on American soil to wag his finger, talk down to those who disagree with him, and lie about it all.

Ironically--if you've made it this far, you deserve something positive--it is my rival Cheddarspherean Rick Esenberg who provides perhaps the best of the 9/11 pieces in the paper this morning. He captures much of what I feel on this anniversay, writing,
I recall Sept. 11 as a numbing day. It was impossible to work and hard to think. At least for me, a more considered reaction came later. Even five years after, there is little that can provoke the same combination of grief and anger, of tears and resolve. [. . .] How could such destruction happen so quickly? How could it have been brought about by a small and unremarkable group of men who seemed, in their misguided beliefs, more pathetic than dangerous What is it in the grotesqueries of radical Islam that would prompt someone to self-immolation and indiscriminate slaughter? We all saw what happened, but it seemed then--and still seems today--implausible.

If you walk across the street, you enter the grounds of St. Paul's Episcopal Chapel. St. Paul's became a respite for emergency responders in the days following 9-11 and is today something of a memorial to what followed the collapse of the towers. Its tiny sanctuary is filled with badges and patches from responders across the nation. There are letters from loved ones of those who died a few hundred feet away and condolences from those who lived on the other side of the planet. There were drawings from children and photographs of the heroism that followed hard upon the hijackers' bloodlust.

St. Paul's is a reminder that the incredible evil wrought by a few was met by the self-emptying love and charity of the many. We must remember the threat that resulted in that gaping emptiness where the towers once stood.

We must also remember the hope that was found at the little church across the street.
I began this long post--if you can remember that far back--by saying that I felt pessimistic about the way this fifth anniversary is happening, and this is very much because I remember the near-instant unity and hope that came on 9/11. On September 10, we were a vividly divided nation. On September 12, we were united. We're not united anymore, ladies and gentleman. And while radical Islamic jihad may not be the fault of George W. Bush, this disunity is. When Patrick McIlheran shills for that man and the hope he exploited in the months after 9/11, he spits on the grave of every American who died that day.

And I cannot let it happen in silence.

Wha?

Let me get this straight: The paper is calling the man who has been in charge for five years a "change agent"?

David Clarke is dangerous, vindictive, and a liar. Under his watch, the Sheriff's department has stopped patrolling parks and freeways, and the county jail is a mess. Yeah, I suppose that's technically "change," but not very good.

Vote Bobot. Please.

Friday, September 08, 2006

"God's words are very clear on what marriage is."

Or so believes Julaine Appling, the prime mover behind support for the antigaymarriageandcivilunions amendment, according to Cory Liebmann at OWN:
Another thing said by Appling in La Crosse also reveals another true motivation for this amendment. She reportedly told the church that "God's words are very clear on what marriage is." So why is she only saying that in churches? Why doesn't she start running commercials making statements like that? Because in public she is pretending that the core reason for this amendment is societal in nature, when it is really one of personal religious belief. The day that we start putting anyone's personal religious views into the state constitution, we endanger our very form of government.
But what Cory doesn't understand is that, indeed, the Bible is as clear as can be:
King Solomon loved many foreign women besides the daughter of Pharaoh (Moabites, Ammonites, Edomites, Sidonians, and Hittites), from nations with which the LORD had forbidden the Israelites to intermarry, "because," he said, "they will turn your hearts to their gods." But Solomon fell in love with them. He had seven hundred wives of princely rank and three hundred concubines, and his wives turned his heart.
Clearly, at least a few hundred wives per man is okay; any more than that and good religious men might go heathen.

I want an amendment about that.

Friday Random Ten

The I'm so tired Edition

1. "Cheeseballs in Cowtown" Béla Fleck from Tales from the Acoustic Planet
2. "Mad Mission" Patty Griffin from A Kiss in Time
3. "Broken Things" Lucy Kaplansky from Every Single Day
4. "Have it All" Jeremy Kay from Scrubs Soundtrack
5. "Alleluia" Dar Williams from The Honesty Room
6. "Enola Gay" Kate McDonnell from Next
7. "I'll Be Your Baby Tonight" Kris Kristofferson from Bob Dylan 30th Anniversary Concert
8. "(You Gotta Have) Heart" Peggy Lee from Fever and Other Hits
9. "Bluer State" John Gorka from Writing in the Margins
10. "Me and Jane Rosetti" Larry Zarella from Laz

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Attorney General, the folkbum endorsement: Peg Lautenschlager

You probably saw it coming, but here's my endorsement in the Democratic Attorney General primary: Peg Lautenschlager.

I spent a lot of time last year talking about this race, and very little doing so this year. Until the last week or so, the race has been kind of a sleeper, and I've been saving up what I have to say. But to recap:

I was never in favor of Kathleen Falk's getting into the race. Not because I don't like her or don't think that she'd do a good job--she is head, shoulders, and torso above the Republican competition--but because the only to challenge Peg is her DUI. Well, that, and she is not a big campaigner, which when it comes to AG I think could be a good thing. I cautioned that a high-profile primary could suck the life out other solid Democratic pick-up chances. And it didn't take long after Falk announced her candidacy before the ugly stories stared, and I was feeling pretty pessimistic.

However, things got quiet. For a long time, I was impressed by the way Falk kept the campaign on the issues, and Peg kept quietly doing her job. Even when there was a disagreement over whether to make first-time DUIs a felony, Falk didn't tie it directly to Peg. I was thinking I'd end up staying true to my initial instinct not to endorse at all.

And then things got ugly. You might say that Peg started it with a relatively negative ad on Falk's experience. (A later ad also challenged Falk's contributor list--and ad that had to be changed to be more accurate.) But the response--almost as if Falk had it in the can--was about the DUI. You can see the ad on YouTube through Fred's place.

As Tony Palmieri phrased it, it was the end to Falk's "wink and nod campaign." I don't remember where I read it, but perhaps the best description of last week's ad wars is that Peg went negative, but Falk went dirty.

And this is what I was afraid of.

One reason I endorsed Scot Ross is that Doug LaFollette refused to debate, fearing it would give ammunition to the Republicans. Falk and Peg have debated, but that's not where the negative ammo is going to come from.

Maybe, you might be thinking, it's good that our AG candidates are facing the tough fire now. Well, I don't know. But i would much rather see the passion, the TV time, and the press coverage go to, say, Jim Sullivan or Pat Kreitlow or John Gard's limpish personality.

In the end, I have to go back to what I've maintained all along: Peg Lautenschlager has been an excellent Attorney General, which has earned her tremendous respect and admiration and enorsements from all over the state. There is no reason--other than, perhaps, "electability"--to change course here. We should return Peg Lautenschlager to the job.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

A No-Endorsement, Yes-Entertainment Post

The folkbum household spent the evening wrestling with window air conditioners. I'm in no mood to write my last endorsement post, or write up my primary predictions.

Thankfully, there's bad prose to cheer me up. Jessica McBride bad. Via the Brawler:
The Economist recently noted that Minneapolis produced more crime fiction than Milwaukee. Clearly it wasn't aware that Jessica's on the case:

Here's the opening of The Jumper. It's with an agent now. I've been advised they don't like it if you "publish" it first on the Web, so I may just add excerpts from time to time to this page.

The premise: A Milwaukee police cold case detective jumps off the Hoan Bridge. Or did he? Assigned to investigate the death, homicide detective Michael St. Germaine finds himself embroiled in a decades-old intrigue that reaches into the top echelons of power. Forced to band together with the newspaper reporter he detests, St. Germaine soon finds himself face-to-face with his own past.

Chapter One

Nowhere is closer to purgatory than Milwaukee in November. Death spread its unhealthy pallor across the city. Corpses of Maple leaves fluttered around, given bursts of life from a squall heading over Lake Michigan. Milwaukee police detective Ken Schweppe swung open the door to Blast's Tap, for the last time, thinking that the weather matched his mood. It was hard to be happy in Milwaukee this time of year.

So, a contest: I buy a drink at the next Milwaukee Drinking Liberally (or a thousand imaginary bonus points--your choice) for the worst opening paragraph for an imaginary novel in the comments below. Enter as often as you like; extra weight will be given to those imaginary novels with a title. Contest closes on primary night, September 12th, at the time the AP calls the GOP attorney general's race. Or midnight, whichever comes first. Wednesday morning I'll post the winner and any others I find amusing. The winner can claim his or her prize at Drinking Liberally that night.

Have at it--and I'll remind you regularly about the deadline.

Monday, September 04, 2006

WI-08, the folkbum endorsement: Steve Kagen

As with the Secretary of State primary, I wasn't sure I was going to endorse anyone in the open 8th Congressional District primary. There are three strong and capable Democrats running for that seat, and any one of them will be a marked improvement over not just John Gard, the presumptive Republican nominee, but Mark Green and any other Republican in Congress right now.

However, the more I've thought about it and the more I've read about the race, I've come to the conclusion that the strongest candidate, and the one most likely to be able to provide an appealing alternative to Gard, is Steve Kagen.

I've been predisposed to like Kagen since he was the first of the three candidates to make a direct appeal to bloggers a year ago. Reaching out to the netroots is an important symbolic step, even if, as I assured him then and am more convinced of now, my own influence is relatively small. In that first meeting and in a second one last spring, he wasn't just seeking money or pixels; he was actively seeking advice. Kagen listens, and that's one thing I like about him.

This is not to say that Nancy Nusbaum (Jamie Wall just doesn't have a shot) wouldn't listen either; all I know is she never called me.

But it is in the contrast between Kagen and Nusbaum that I see a reflection of what the contrast would be between Kagen and Gard. 2006 is, nationally, shaping up to be an anti-Republican, anti-incumbent year. John Gard is nothing if not a Republican incumbent, even if he's never held this particular office. Gard is a politician's politician. Everyone knows who he is and what he is and, frankly, people just don't like him that much. Nancy Nusbaum, of course, hasn't been sitting atop an ineffective and reactionary legislature. But Nusbaum is also a politician--albeit one on the side of good rather than evil. Kagen, on the other hand, can ride a wave of anti-politician sentiment that Nusbaum and Gard can't harness.

I think the voters in the 8th are seeing that. I can't help but roll my eyes a little bit every time someone tells me that Kagen is winning big--the polls they cite are all paid for by Kagen's campaign. However, it is important to note that neither Gard nor Nusbaum is releasing internal polling data. That suggests to me that the numbers Gard and Nusbaum are seeing aren't the kind to be proud of. Even if you take Kagen's polls with a grain of salt, the lack of data from Gard and Nusbaum still speaks volumes.

The Republicans, who lined up behind Gard, also are looking at Kagen as their eventual opponent. The NRCC is already buying coordinated ads against Kagen. There's no question that the Republicans have made some bad decisions in this cycle (how much money are they spending to defend Lincoln Chaffee in a primary?), but I believe they must have their own polling showing a Kagen win on the Democratic side.

The 8th is a winnable district this year: There's no incumbent, and a general anti-Republican sentiment across the nation. I firmly believe that the best bet we have to take it is with Steven Kagen.

We interrupt these endorsements for some random items of interest

  • I always appreciate it when the federal government sees fit to declare my birthday a holiday. That's right; today I turn 29 for the fourth time. How much more famous to I need to be to get on this list? And how can I get into Damon Wayans's party? 'Cause, you know, it's probably better than what I got planned.

  • Some sad news:
  • Apparently Mark Green is going to court in an effort to keep a bunch of contributions that would have been illegal at the time had they been made to his state campaign. Instead, they were made to his federal campaign by PACs not registered in Wisconsin, something the elections law requires now--and required when those conrtibutions were made. Tom Barrett seems to have been able to get away with that violation in 2002, and Green's team thinks the double-standard gives them a good case. Bill Christofferson, who was managing Doyle's 2002 campaign, says they should think again:
    Congressman Mark Green's campaign, incensed that the board told him this week to follow state law, keeps complaining that then-Congressman Tom Barrett was allowed to transfer his federal money, and Democrats thought that was fine, the Greenies say.

    Actually, a check of the record shows: (1) that George Dunst, the board attorney Green's people now cite as the authoritative source (because he seems to agree with them), said in 2000 exactly what the Elections Board said to Green this week: You can transfer the money, but it has to comply with state law, and that means the PACs have to be registered in Wisconsin. (2) that the Doyle campaign, including yours truly, took the same position about Barrett's money as it has taken about Green's money. [. . .]

    It appears that Barrett transferred the money anyway, with no enforcement action against him. That does not change the law.

    What has changed is the membership on the Elections Board, which has taken a tougher posture.
    It is true that the governor appoints some of the members of the elections board (though by no means not all). I asked this question of a Republican partisan blogger this morning: What does it mean that the Thompson-McCallum appointees were more lax with the law than the Doyle appointees? How does that fit into your spin of Doyle and the Democrats being corrupt?

    Seth at In Effect wonders why Green doesn't just give up the money, arguing it would be win-win:
    The only explanation I can think of is that Green sees this as a way to finally rally the base, which is something his campaign has been largely unable to do thus far. Perhaps they feel taking the position of an abused underdog will help generate support from those who don't want to see a Dem in power, but care even less for a Dem "pushing around" a fellow conservative.
    Personally, I don't see energizing the base as the strategy Green needs right now.

  • Pollster.com--a new site by the old Myster Pollster and the guy behind Politcal Arithmetik--just rocks. This is their page on the Wisconsin governor's race, showing the moving average of all the polls done since April. You can see the graph to the right there, with the trendline firmly up for Doyle and Doyle consistently ahead even in the confidence intervals. The average of the last five polls, including the Strategic Vision poll showing a one-point race, put Doyle up by six. The last ten polls put Doyle up by seven. You can also see how clear it is that the SV polls are outliers, so, my dear R friends, don't pin your hopes to that Republican firm's results.

    Chris Bowers at MyDD has a summary of Pollster.com's close US Senate race polls:I like those numbers, especially given Allen's coming self-destruction.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

US Senate, the folkbum endorsement: Ben Masel

Is Herb Kohl the worst Democrat in the United States Senate? Republicans, independents, and Democrats alike can agree that the answer to that question is indeed no, though for different reasons. But has Kohl's time in the Senate been so distinguished and so extraordinary that he does not deserve a viable challenger? Again, most of us would probably say no.

Unfortunately, it looks like the most serious challenge to Kohl will come this year from Green Rae Vogler; Robert Lorge's 30% or so will come mostly from Republicans reflexively voting that way, not because they support him. But if you're voting in the Democratic primary--as I am--you can't also vote for Vogeler. Therefore, I recommend my friend and professional troublemaker Ben Masel.

Yes, I know, that's a MySpace page. Ben doesn't have one of them fancy websites with the bells and the whistles and the forms for signing up to get a yard sign or anything. This is primarily because he isn't making much money at this gig; he's accepting maximum $1 contributions to his campaign. If I remember right, he's collected somewhere around $500 so far (Ben will likely jump in to the comments below with the up-to-date figure).

It's a safe bet, then, he will be massively outspent by Herb Kohl.

That doesn't mean that Kohl shouldn't hear about the things that we don't like about him. His support for the Iraq War Resolution remains one that sticks in my craw, as well as his vote for the bankruptcy legislation that privileges credit card companies over working families. Ben Masel would not have supported either of those measures.

In the end, am I going to worry if Kohl is re-elected? No; he is, most of the time, a perfectly reliable Democratic vote. But he's not a leader, and he's unwilling to stick his neck out to protect the people of Wisconsin the way Russ Feingold does. Or the way Ben Masel would.

Secretary of State, the folkbum endorsement: Scot Ross

I went back and forth about whether I wanted to make an endorsement in this race, and it even took me a while to figure out who I wanted to vote for. But it's become clear in the last week or so that Scot Ross is da man.

I'm not saying that Doug LaFollette has been bad as Secretary of State; but he hasn't been good, either. He's just kind of been. But elected Democrats have been telling me he does nothing for the party. He's steadfastly refused to debate Ross (as Ross noted on this very blog) for fear it would give the Republicans "ammunition." Carrie Lynch at What's Left has been all over the story of how LaFollette doesn't know how to campaign legally in the age of the internets--something LaFollette got nailed for last week (see today's Wisconsin State Journal for more).

But what pushed me over into deciding to endorse is the fact that Scot Ross has a sense of humor. Last week--before LaFollette was fined by the state ethics board--the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsed him, almost entirely based on the fact that, while a staffer in the Democratic Caucus office, Ross did some campaign work for his bosses on state time. (Ross cooperated fully with the investigation that led to convictions and jail time for top Democrats and Republicans in the legislature at the time.) Here's Ross's response:
Caucus Involvement to Cost Green Journal Sentinel Nod
‘Charlie Sykes is Going to Be Ticked About This,’ Says Ross

Wisconsin – Scot Ross, Democratic Secretary of State Candidate, predicted Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Green would lose the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsement, due to Green’s involvement in the caucus scandal.

“No newspaper with any credibility would have a double standard when it comes to how they treat Democrats versus Republicans,” said Ross. “Unfortunately for Mark Green, his involvement in the caucus scandal likely means he has forfeited the chance to win the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s endorsement.” [. . .]

“What was going on was wrong and I hope my cooperation was of some assistance,” said Ross. “I remain concerned the only one who has refused to come clean is Mark Green, who talks like Sergeant York when he’s risking other people’s children in Iraq, but sounds like Sergeant Schultz when he’s trying to save his own skin.”
Yeah, it's a cheesy press release, but it's right on the money. I think the Journal Sentinel will likely endorse Doyle--for other reasons beyond Green's having been up to his elbows in caucus scandal--but Ross, with a much better attitude than I might have taken, drew a bright red line and dared the paper's editorial board to cross it come November. I like that kind of moxie.

Now, I do have some reservations about Ross's ideas to return some authority over elections to the SoS office; I like the non-partisan (or, really, multi-partisan) board we have now. I'm not a big fan of current chair Kevin Kennedy, but for 30 years Wisconsin's had unelected independent officials overseeing elections in this state. I don't think Scot Ross would ever be a Katherine Harris of a Ken Blackwell, but the potential for mischief by someone less principled makes me wary. However, that kind of change has to be made in the legislature, and with any luck--and a Democratic State Senate--something like SB-1 could pass and elections can get cleaner without centralizing control in a partisan elected office.

In the meantime, Scot Ross will revitalize the Secretary of State's office.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Milwaukee County Sheriff, the folkbum endorsement: Vince Bobot

This one's easy: Since there is exactly one real Democrat running in the primary for Milwaukee County Sheriff, I'm enthusiastically endorsing him: Vince Bobot.

Feel free to search my archives, as I've never been a big fan of David Clarke. But Don't just take my word for it: Consider Clarke's having been fired from the Milwaukee Police Department, for example. Michael Horne's got a story up at his blog right now detailing Clarke's obsession with guns, but the archives and permalinks seem broken. Here's the relevant portion:
Clarke has been criticized for his cavalier attitude toward weaponry, and milwaukeeworld will here add a third instance to the two already publicly known.

Clarke was famously photographed wearing his gun into the jail when he was escorting a fugitive into the slammer during one of his frequent publicity stunts, and this year Clarke wore his piece while bartending at an event for the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

On October 21, 1975, the Milwaukee Police Department arrested David Alexander Clarke, Jr., D.O.B. August 21st 1956, on one count of “Reckless Use Weapon 941.20” Back then, to be charged with a reckless use of a weapon, one actually had to have pointed the weapon at another individual, which seems to heighten the severity of the allegations.

Clarke was ultimately not prosecuted, and this remains his only arrest on criminal charges.
Milwaukee is not actually a Kevin Costner western.

Bobot's long career as a public servant includes much lauding and great praise, which you can read about at his website. Hearing him speak last fall, I was particularly impressed with his commitment to the community prosecution program he's been working with at the DA's office, and I hope he'll continue to encourage that kind of work when he assumes the mantle of Sheriff in January.

Friday, September 01, 2006

AD-23, the folkbum endorsement: Bill Elliott

I first met Bill Elliott in early 2004. I, like many others, had just come off the incredibly deflating experience of holding on to the Howard Dean campaign until the bitter, noisy end.

There were some rollicking good times, even near the end, when Dean pretty much camped out in Wisconsin through the primary. There was little question, though, that we bitter-enders were beat, in more ways then one.

Casting about for something--anything--to do, a number of us in Milwaukee started thinking about what else we could do, what would be next. We were bruised but not completely out of pluck. The idea of taking out a Republican--any Republican--seemed irresistible, and the perfect target was just a few miles away in F. Jim Sensenbrenner.

Candidates, too, seemed to recognize that within the leftovers of the Dean campaign were enough embers to make serious fire if used wisely, and it wasn't hard to convince even candidates for Congress to come to us, and we hosted Congressional candidates, Tom Barrett just days before the election, judges, and more.

In retrospect, we perhaps did have a bit of an inflated sensed of self-importance. But there's no denying that one candidate, Bryan Kennedy, got a tremendous boost from the boots we were able to put on the ground for him.

Bill Elliott was Bryan's campaign manager, and, though Bill always seemed very much to the left of the moderate candidate, he knew he had hold of a Good Thing in Bryan Kennedy. He also knew how to press every button and work every angle to try to get the Democratic establishment to notice that, hey, Sensenbrenner faced a real, competent opponent. Bryan never considered himself token opposition, and Bill never considered the race as anything other than a decidedly serious contest.

In the end, it was mostly tilting at windmills. Bryan's and Bill's attempts to get noticed by anyone higher up the Democratic ladder fell flat. In a post-election speech, Bryan made it clear that Madison Dems' refusal to help--and DC Dems' writing off of the race--hurt. Their support probably wouldn't have turned around the thirty-point spread that November, but it did vindicate a lot of what we Howard Dean types knew about The Party:

Professional Democrats didn't want to take chances.

We all know how that story ends. Howard Dean, with his controversial 50-state strategy, is now chair of the Democratic National Committee. Maybe among the Rahm Emanuel CYA types there remains derision of the idea, but now most people accept as gospel the idea that no seat should remain unchallenged, no race is too unimportant not to take chances.

Bill Elliott never gave up on the idea. Kennedy's one-year campaign against Sensenbrenner turned into a three-year campaign. Kennedy's quixotic effort now looks appealing to the Professional Democrats. Almost all of the credit--besides that which is due to Bryan Kennedy, who has been the best candidate that district could have asked for--belongs to Bill Elliott.

When Rep. Curt Gielow announced his retirement from the Assembly, Democrats saw a pick-up opportunity. Gielow is an endangered species--a moderate in the Republican Assembly caucus. His district, while certainly Republican, does not exhibit the characteristics that typically doom gerrymandered suburban districts to wingnuttery.

Among other things, Gielow always got high marks for his focus on affordable health care--something that Bill Elliott has made a centerpiece of his campaign. Bill's also been able to use the vast network he built while working for Bryan Kennedy to help him, and has by far the best ground game in the district. His fundraising techniques have even garnered national attention.

No amount of luck and hard work will put the Assembly back in the hands of Democrats. That's just a fact we need to face. But seats here and there are winnable--including the 23rd.

The man to win it is Bill Elliott.

Friday Random Ten

The End of the Summer Edition

1. "Surrey with the Fringe on Top" Miles Davis from Steamin' with the Quintet
2. "Davy" Peggy Seeger from Songs for October 2004
3. "Sisters of Mercy" Leonard Cohen from The Best of
4. "I'll Meet You in the Sky" The Nields from 'Mousse
5. "Ithaca" Peter Mulvey from Glencree (Listen to this great interview with Peter from NPR last week.)
6. "Feed Kill Chain" Jay Farrar from Sebastopol
7. "Imagination" Vance Gilbert from Somerville Live
8. "Red Firecracker" The Jayhawks from Blue Earth
9. "Don't Panic" Coldplay from Garden State Soundtrack
10. "End of the Summer" Dar Williams from End of the Summer (how appropriate!)