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Tuesday, November 29, 2005

J-Dizzle in a holding pattern

SurveyUSA is out with its latest set of rankings for 50 states' worth of governors, and Wisconsin's Jim Doyle is once again thoroughly mediocre, and slightly behind in overall approval. If the conservative half of the Cheddarsphere gets hold of it, they'll trumpet the slight uptick in Doyle's negatives from the rooftops. But the new poll is no different, if you look at this pretty graph:

You can see that, from month to month, there's a lot of statistical noise, with the negatives consistently a little higher than the positives, but all of it back and forth in a narrow range.

In fact, these numbers are not much different from where they were the last time I commented on them, and not really different from the head-to-heads from the non-partisan St. Norbert poll out couple of weeks ago.

What's interesting is looking at the break-out numbers. J-Dizzle has a huge gender-gap problem, for one. But What I find most interesting is that Doyle's pos-neg in Southeast Wisconsin--where Milwaukee and Racine might provide a stronger liberal base--is 41%-51%. Oustate, he clocks in at 49%-46%. This suggests that, if Doyle can turn up the liberal charm without alienating the rest of the state, he can pick up some ground. I'm not sure what he can do to do that, though. The details also help to answer a question Dean Mundy posed a while ago: Why are Doyle's ratings so low? Self-identified Dems show a 26% negative, and self-identified liberals show a 36% negative. I doubt many of those can be "turned" by Walker or Green, so, again, room for the Dizzle to grow.

Update: Xoff beat me to it, but I didn't see it.

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