T minus 12 hours

So I didn't get to go to Iowa. I wanted to, sure, but in the end I have too much crap to deal with here at home. And I need to be well rested this week for a fight of a different nature, and that means getting home in the wee hours of Tuesday morning is not an option.

Anyway, I just wanted to make sure my predictions were out there. For the final count--not the initial count at the door, but once the delegates have been divvied up in the ~2000 Iowa precincts tonight--I predict the following totals:
  Dean      28%
  Gephardt  26%
  Kerry     19%
  Edwards   13%
  Kucinich  1%
  Uncommitted 13%
In the end, Gephardt's organization will keep him in the running, and I'm pretty sure that he and Dean will be the only two to reach the 15% viability threshold in every precinct. That means Edwards, Kerry, and Kucinich (I don't think Sharpton, Lieberman, or Clark will make 15% anywhere) will have precincts where their final count is zero, dropping their overall percentages.

I predict turnout will be about 125,000--nearly double 2000's 68,000 total.

Finally, don't miss my post-Iowa commentary (as part of the "Boston Bound" series at Open Source Politics tomorrow morning.

[Post-game Update: Boy, was I wrong! Mmmmm, them eggs is good, even if they was on my face! I may have hit turnout right, though.]