I'm shaking

I can't literally mainline this politics stuff, but I am actually shaking, jonesing for the results. (It could also be the Chips Ahoy.) If the leaked NH exit poll data were showing Kerry with a solid lead, I wouldn't care. I'd be able to get off my behind and actually do some housework--or even homework. But everything is pointing to the fact that this will be a real tight 1-2 finish. And I'm dying over here.

I've been maintaining for some time that a finish within five or so points--after being down by almost 20 in some polls--will be a moral if not real victory for Howard Dean. Remember, Clinton finished third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, too. But the numbers--especially the LA Times numbers I hear--put Dean closer than Clinton in 1992.

More importantly, it looks like Clark and Edwards may well stay below 15%, meaning that they would not earn any delegates. So figure that Dean and Kerry get maybe 31% and 37%, repectively. That means Dean would get 8 delegates, Kerry 11. That's durned close, my friends.

Perhaps the best thing that could happen is if Dean wins one of the two congressional districts, which might make those numbers 9 to 10 in favor of Kerry. There is very little in either set of numbers that Kerry can really crow about.

Of course, the exit polling notoriously poor. I mean, after 2000, what's the point? Anyway, the last polls close in less than half an hour, and the real results will start coming in. Until then, the shaking.

UPDATE: After they called it for Kerry, I took a time out and watched "Good Eats" (the cheese one--I love my TiVo!) and talked to my mother-in-law (who called here). I feel a little better, though still sad. My analysis, as always, will be at OSP in the morning.

UPDATE II: The OSP post is here.